Senior trader: Bitcoin may have completed its rise target in this cycle! Fear of hitting $30,000

This site (120btC.coM): Peter Brandt, a senior trader who has published many best-selling financial management books and has more than 720,000 fans on X, recently wrote in an article stated that Bitcoin has reached a peak in the current bull cycle and predicted that Bitcoin may drop to over $30,000 or even lower.

Peter Brandt: Bitcoin's plunge is a good thing in the long run

Bitcoin has experienced four bull market cycles and is currently in its fifth. According to Peter Brandt’s article, the prediction of Bitcoin’s fall is based on the phenomenon of exponential decay, which is a conclusion he drew from his observation of Bitcoin’s four bull market cycles.

Based on data from the past four bull market cycles, Peter Brandt pointed out that in each market cycle, about 80% of the growth momentum will disappear:

• 2011-2013 The scale is about 20% of the 2009-2011 cycle

• The scale of 2015-2017 is about 20% of the 2011-2013 cycle

• 2018 -The size in 2021 is about 20% of the 2015-2017 cycle

#In other words, every successful bull market cycle index energy will dissipate 80%, which also indicates that the current bull market cycle will There will be an exponential growth of about 4.5 times (20% of 22 times in the 2018–2021 cycle is about 440%).

Since the low of this cycle is $15,473, that is to say, the current cycle has reached a 4.5-fold increase (the current market price is about $72,500); however, this senior analyst does not seem to dare to assert Bitcoin has reached the peak of the current bull market, not to mention that BTC has just ended its halving, so he believes that the probability that Bitcoin has peaked is about 25%.

Federal Reserve Interest Rate Dot Plot

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