Which countries top the list for crypto earnings in 2023

Research Methodology: How We Calculate Cryptocurrency Returns and Estimate Returns by Country

We use on-chain data to estimate investors’ crypto returns based on the movement of crypto assets in and out of the service Fiat currencies can be transferred in and out of the service. Specifically, we first measure on-chain macro flows for a selected set of assets that represent approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and trade on major centralized exchanges that offer crypto-to-fiat conversions. We then estimate the overall collective return for each asset by measuring the difference between the dollar value of all withdrawals from the asset and the value of all deposits from the asset. This approach is based on the fact that any deposits to provide on-ramp services represent a potential conversion to cash, thereby realizing any gain or loss on the asset. While the method is not perfect, it gives us a strong estimate of returns on popular assets traded on centralized exchanges.

Once we have used this method to estimate user crypto asset earnings for each service we track, we will allocate those earnings based on each country’s share of web traffic on each service’s website. This combination of data and traffic also forms the basic framework for our calculation of the annual Global Cryptocurrency Adoption Index.

While this total is well below the $159.7 billion gain during the 2021 bull market, it represents a significant recovery from an estimated loss of $127.1 billion in 2022. Interestingly, our total return estimate for 2023 is lower than for 2021, despite crypto asset prices growing at similar rates in both years. One possible explanation for this is that investors in 2023 are less likely to convert crypto assets into cash because, unlike 2021, previous all-time highs were not surpassed at any point in 2023, so prices are expected to rise as much as higher.

Before the consecutive declines in August and September, the cryptocurrency’s gains had remained relatively stable throughout the year. However, the gains then climbed sharply, with the performance in November and December far outpacing all previous months.

2023 Cryptocurrency Revenue Estimation by Country

In 2023, the United States is far ahead in terms of cryptocurrency revenue, expected to reach $9.36 billion. The United Kingdom follows closely behind, with cryptocurrency gains estimated at $1.39 billion.

Interestingly, we also see what appear to be huge gains for residents of some upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income countries, particularly in Asia such as Vietnam, China, Indonesia and India, where estimated gains are over $1 billion each , ranking among the best in the world. All countries are ranked in the top six. We previously noted in our 2023 Cryptocurrency Geography Report that countries in these income categories, particularly lower- and middle-income countries, show strong cryptocurrency adoption rates that have remained significantly resilient even during the recent bear market . Our return estimates suggest that many investors in these countries benefit from embracing this asset class.

What are the big trends in 2024?

The positive trends seen in 2023 so far have continued into 2024, with prominent crypto assets like Bitcoin hitting all-time highs amid the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and increased institutional adoption. If these trends continue, we may see gains more in line with 2021's gains. As of March 13, Bitcoin was up 65.4% in 2024 and Ethereum was up 70.2%.

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