Ethena's shard is the new 'golden shovel'?

Compiled by: Peng SUN, Foresight News

Ethena Labs Shards is an underrated "golden shovel". They changed "points" to "shards" very wisely. It's so cool. .

I calculated the price of Ethena shards and I feel like it is undervalued. In short, hurry up and buy YT USDe on Pendle.

Let’s first calculate how many “shards” Ethena Labs expects to issue. The event has been running for 12 days from February 19 to March 2.

The current total number of fragments is 65.78 billion, and it is expected that there will be an increase of approximately 4 billion fragments every day in the future. Joo provided an unofficial forecast, saying that over the next 2 to 4 Epochs, the inflation rate of shards will decrease by 25% and 50% respectively.

According to Messari’s prediction, Ethena’s fragmentation activity will end on March 20, about 18 days before the deadline. Based on this data, we can initially estimate that the total number of fragments on the market is about 138 billion (i.e. 65.78 billion 4 billion * 18 days).

Let us calculate the value of Shard. In a cautious approach, Ethena, which is expected to be valued at $2 billion, plans to airdrop 5% of the total supply of tokens (approximately $100 million). This means that each shard has a potential value of approximately $0.0007258 ($100 million / 138 billion shards).

From a bottom-up perspective, the current market valuation of Ethena fragments is low. The current price of each YT USDe on Pendle is US$0.05. Each YT USDe can generate 10 fragments every day. After 18 days, each YT USDe can accumulate 180 fragments. In other words, the current market price for 180 shards is $0.05, and the implied value of each shard is $0.0002778 ($0.05/180 shards). If you buy YT USDe, it means that Shard still has 3 times the room for speculation.

What I want to say is that everyone still needs to pay attention to the risks before going all in to participate in Ethena Labs’ fragmentation activities:

• The above calculation is based on my own reasonable estimation, not necessarily It is completely consistent with the actual situation;
• Airdrop does not mean that it can be realized immediately, and it may take a long time to make profits;
• Products, smart contracts and other risks.

Now you can deposit USDT, USDC, DAI, GHO, crvUSD, mkUSD through the Ethena Labs official website in exchange for USDe, use USDe to provide liquidity, lock or pledge USDe to obtain shards. But based on the above analysis, I think the best way to get shards is to buy YT USDe on Pendle. Not only can you get 181x leverage points, but you can also claim Ethena’s 10x shard rewards.

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