Automobile market forecast for January 2024: Retail sales will decrease month-on-month, but year-on-year growth is expected to be 70.2%

According to the forecast of the Passenger Car Association, the narrow passenger car retail market this month is expected to be about 2.2 million units, a month-on-month decrease of 6.5%. This decline is mainly affected by the ultra-low base at the beginning of last year, and the year-on-year growth is expected to reach 70.2%.

The retail sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach about 800,000 vehicles, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3%. The penetration rate is expected to reach 36.4%. Analysis shows that as of mid-January, most car companies are still continuing the promotional policies at the end of last year, and the discounts in the market have remained at a high level, which continues to stimulate consumers' desire to buy cars and help release demand for car purchases before the Spring Festival.

According to the editor’s understanding, this year’s Spring Festival is later than previous years, in mid-February, and there are 22 working days in January, which provides sufficient time for car sales. This is good for terminal delivery. Overall, the automotive market in January this year is expected to have a good start.

The cold weather this winter has made consumers pay more attention to the endurance performance of electric vehicles. This has had an adverse impact on potential consumer savings in the new energy vehicle market. Some leading new energy vehicle manufacturers began to lower prices due to terminal performance not being as good as expected, indicating that the mainstream new energy market segment may usher in an outbreak of price competition.

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