Mechanical Man Zai Peng | Overview of domestic and foreign humanoid robot products and discussion of future development trends

Investment logic

The content of foreign humanoid robot products needs to be rewritten

(1) Tesla: The Optimus robot is driven by a motor and has 40 actuators throughout its body. It has been continuously updated iteratively since its release in 2022. According to Musk, Optimus will be mass-produced and launched in the next 3-5 years, and is planned to be used in Tesla factories in 24 years. (2) Boston Dynamics: The humanoid robot Atlas uses an electro-hydraulic hybrid drive with a knee joint torque of 890Nm. It is maneuverable and flexible and has the ability to climb over obstacles and perform backflips. At the same time, Atlas has independent pace planning algorithm, behavior library, model predictive control and other technologies, and has powerful sensing and navigation functions. (3) 1X: Its humanoid robot EVE has environment sensing and interactive functions and is mainly used in the fields of logistics, retail and security; the humanoid robot NEO is still under development and is expected to adopt a gearless design concept and will be used in logistics, manufacturing and operating machinery in the future. And scenes such as cleaning and housework. (4) Agility: Its humanoid robot Digit is mainly used for warehouse cargo handling and logistics distribution. Agility is building a robot manufacturing factory with a planned production capacity of 10,000 units and is expected to be put into production by the end of 2023. Agility expects to deliver the first batch of Digit in 2024 and will be fully launched in 2025.

Humanoid robots are receiving more and more attention and attention in the domestic market. In order to meet different needs, a variety of humanoid robot products have emerged in the domestic market. In this article, we will sort out and introduce domestic humanoid robot products. First, we have the home assistant humanoid robot. These robots are designed to provide a variety of services and assistance in the home environment. They can complete household chores such as cleaning, laundry, etc., and can also provide support and entertainment in daily life. These humanoid robots are often equipped with voice recognition and facial recognition technology to interact with family members. Secondly, we have educational humanoid robots. These robots are widely used in schools and educational institutions. They can assist teachers in teaching and provide a personalized learning experience. Educational humanoid robots can interact with students in an interactive way to help them understand and master knowledge. In addition, we also have medical care humanoid robots. These robots are designed for use in medical and nursing fields. They can provide basic medical and nursing services, such as taking body temperature and monitoring vital signs. Medical care humanoid robots can also provide support and assistance during the rehabilitation process to help patients regain their health. Finally, we have entertainment humanoids. These robots are designed for entertainment and leisure activities. They can sing, dance, tell jokes, etc. to provide users with happiness and entertainment. Entertainment humanoid robots usually have rich emotional expression capabilities and can establish emotional connections with users. In general, there are a wide variety of humanoid robot products in the domestic market, covering fields such as home assistants, education, medical care, and entertainment. With the continuous advancement and innovation of technology, humanoid robots are expected to play a greater role in the future, bringing convenience and fun to people's lives

(1) UBTECH: UBTECH launched the large-scale robot Walker in 2018, becoming the first company in China to commercialize humanoid robots. WalkerX was released in 2021, becoming the world's first humanoid robot that can be mass-produced and delivered. In addition, they also have products such as Wukong and Alpha Ebot in the field of small robots, which are mainly used in the education field. (2) Dasha: Dasha launched the wheeled robot Ginger in 2019, which is mainly used in welcome guides, commercial promotions, program performances, elderly care and other fields. They will exhibit the robot Xiaozi XR-4 in 2023. The robot has 60 flexible joints, a single-leg peak torque of 600Nm, and strong movement performance. (3) Fourier: Fourier's GR-1 robot is equipped with a self-developed FSA integrated actuator, which integrates motors, drives, reducers and encoders. The maximum joint module peak torque is 300NM. They plan to start pre-sales in September 2023 and plan mass production and delivery in the next 1-2 years. (4) Zhiyuan: Zhiyuan’s Yuanzheng A1 robot is equipped with a PowerFlow joint motor with a peak torque of more than 350NM. They plan to achieve commercialization in 2024, first applying it to 3C manufacturing and automobile manufacturing, and gradually expanding to the home field. (5) Yushu: Yushu's H1 robot is equipped with an M107 joint motor with a peak knee torque of 360Nm. It is the first humanoid robot in China that can run. Currently, the H1 robot can be pre-ordered and is expected to be shipped around the fourth quarter of 2023, with commercialization progress leading the way. (6) Xiaomi: Xiaomi’s robot CyberOne has 21 degrees of freedom throughout the body, a hip motor with a peak torque of 300Nm, and can perceive 45 kinds of human semantic emotions, mainly serving people themselves. (7) iFlytek: iFlytek combines large cognitive models with motion intelligence to launch an embodied intelligent humanoid robot. The robot can automatically dismantle tasks and perform related operations based on natural language instructions to achieve a closed loop of specific task flows. (8) Xiaopeng: Xiaopeng’s PX5 robot has a high-load mechanical arm and a dexterous hand with 11 degrees of freedom, and can be connected to XNGP and XOS technologies in the automotive field. Realize core technology reuse in terms of perception capabilities. PX5 robots will be prioritized for field application in Xiaopeng’s factories and sales scenarios, and stability and reliability will be improved through iterative upgrades. (9) Chasemi Technology: Chasemi Technology’s universal humanoid robot is equipped with a self-developed servo motor and integrates 60 parts, including motors, drivers, reducers and dual encoders. In addition, it is equipped with a depth camera that can complete indoor three-dimensional environment modeling, and combines advanced gait control algorithms and a variety of sensors to achieve autonomous obstacle avoidance capabilities

How do you see the future development trend of humanoid robots?

Future drive solution selection for humanoid robots: "Motor reducer" is the preferred solution for future commercial promotion.

Future application scenarios of humanoid robots: first used in factories, and then gradually entered into homes

Future development direction of humanoid robot manufacturers: The improvement of motor torque has become an important competitive direction for robot startups, the reuse of perception capabilities is the top priority for cross-border car companies, and large-scale model technology is a breakthrough for Internet companies to deploy humanoid robots.

In order to conduct business analysis, we need to collect a large amount of data and conduct in-depth research. Through analysis of market trends, competitors, and customer behavior, we can gain valuable insights into business operations. These insights help us make strategic decisions and optimize business processes to achieve continued growth and profitability. Operational analysis is an important tool that can help us understand market needs, gain insights into potential opportunities, and respond to potential risks. Through effective operational analysis, we can make informed decisions, improve business performance, and maintain a competitive advantage

Rapidly enter the precision planetary reducer market through acquisitions and further enrich the general reducer product line. Motoli Intelligent Transmission specializes in high-end precision planetary reducers. Its products are widely used in mid-to-high-end equipment fields such as laser cutting machines, CNC machine tools, robots, lithium battery equipment, photovoltaic equipment, and printing equipment. It has mature and advanced high-precision planetary reducer technology, and its products have strong market competitiveness; it established a French joint venture in 2016 to start international development. According to sales data compiled by QY Research, global planetary reducer sales in 2022 will be US$1.203 billion, of which sales in China will be US$500 million; Japan's Xinbao, Kefeng Intelligent and New's Dart are the leading players in China's precision planetary reducer market are the main suppliers, and their market shares in China in 2022 will be 20.4%, 11.7%, and 9.45 respectively. We believe that with this acquisition, the company will quickly enter the field of high-end precision planetary reducers, enrich the company's general reducer series, and have certain synergy effects with the company's existing business, especially the harmonic reducer business, in the industry, which will help strengthen cooperation with Industrial interaction with downstream customers while enhancing company performance.

Manufacturing demand has recovered marginally, and the company's main business is expected to enter a new round of upward growth. The market demand for general reducers is currently at a bottoming stage. In August 2023, the cumulative year-on-year output data of my country's industrial enterprises reached an inflection point, with the cumulative year-on-year data reaching about 2.4% (July growth rate was 1.6%). The growth rate rose to 3.1% in September. The inflection point was confirmed in the short term, or the stage of active inventory replenishment was entered. As the economy gradually recovers, the demand for the general reducer industry is expected to enter a new boom cycle. The company has strong product competitiveness in the field of general reducers, and has entered the high-end market through the Jienuo brand, and is expected to achieve a new round of rapid growth. .

Investment Advice

We believe that the core part of the humanoid robot industry chain is motion joints. Taking into account the value and competitive barriers, we recommend focusing on the ball screw and reducer segments. In the field of reducers, we recommend paying attention to double-ring transmission and green harmonics. In terms of ball screws, we recommend paying attention to Hengli Hydraulic and Best

risk warning

The development of humanoid robots is not as good as expected, the progress of domestic substitution is not as good as expected, and industry competition has intensified.

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