For a long time, we seem to be quite keen on talking about 5G killer applications. Just enter keywords in the Baidu search bar and you will find a large number of related results, not to mention search results from other more platforms.
Talking about 5G killer applications, how should we define whether a certain 5G application reaches "killer level"? In the author's opinion, there are at least the following two major factors. One is that the product has a large enough shipment level, and the other is that the application has made a major change or far-reaching impact on our lives. Influence.
However, despite these two directions to assist judgment, the understanding of whether a certain 5G application is killer still varies from person to person. Therefore, 5G killer application is actually a false proposition
Let’s not talk about 5G’s killer applications, Let’s talk about the “fertile black land” where it “grows”
Perhaps we should pay more attention to the currently well-developed and potential 5G application market, rather than discussing whether a certain 5G application has killer potential and whether it can produce killer applications in the future. Through communication with people in the industry, we have a new understanding of 5G Internet of Vehicles, 5G FWA and 5G PC applications. The terminal scale of these three application markets is growing rapidly
5G FWA application, as of January 2023, more than 90 fixed broadband service providers have launched commercial fixed wireless services based on 5G in 48 countries. This means that currently about 40% of 5G commercial mobile products in the world contain FWA products, especially in North America. In the past two years, this region has become the region with the largest share of the global fixed wireless access market. In terms of fixed wireless broadband technology, Investment increased significantly. Take T-Mobile, an operator in the region, as an example. It added a total of more than 500,000 5G FWA customers in the fourth quarter of 2021 and the first quarter of 2022, and is expected to have 8 million FWA users by 2025 (Verizon's during the same period The goal is to add 5 million FWA users).
According to the AIoT Star Map Research Institute, the FWA market accounts for the largest share of IoT application shipments. Last year, the overall shipment volume of this application market reached 760w, including CPE, MiFi, IDU/ODU, etc. Among terminal-type products, CPE had the largest shipment volume last year, reaching 6 million; it is expected that the FWA application market shipments will further increase to 10 million this year, of which CEP will reach 8 million. Different from the global market, the main domestic shipment field is the automotive market. Currently, only a few car manufacturers (such as BYD) are using 5G eMBB modules. Of course, other car manufacturers are testing together with module manufacturers.
In terms of 5G Internet of Vehicles, intelligent connected cars are the "second half" of new energy vehicles and an inevitable trend in the development of the automobile industry in my country and even the world. Taking the domestic market as an example, according to monitoring data from the Gaogong Intelligent Automobile Research Institute, in the Chinese market (excluding import and export), 13.3846 million passenger cars with front-loaded standard telematics functions will be delivered in 2022, and the front-loaded installation rate will reach 67.15%. Among them, 417,400 5G vehicles were delivered and installed (excluding optional equipment), and the pre-installation rate was 2.09%.
Rewritten content: Data source: Gaogong Intelligent Automotive Research Institute
Although 4G is still the mainstream of the current IoV communication market, with the continuous optimization of 5G chip and module prices, and the new demands of car companies and car owners for high bandwidth and high speed of in-vehicle communication, 5G IoV will also Entering a whole new stage. It is expected that by 2025, the application rate of 5G in the Internet of Vehicles will exceed 25% to 35%, that is, the annual delivery volume is about 5 to 7.5 million vehicles. It is expected to realize cellular Internet of Vehicles (C-V2X) on key highways and urban roads. The scale covers
5G PC, according to Strategy Analytics statistics, the global 5G mobile PC penetration rate will be 5% of cellular laptops in 2021, about 600,000 units, and will rise to 8% in 2022, reaching 1 million units. . In addition, global shipments of cellular laptops are expected to reach 14.3 million units in 2025, of which the proportion of laptops supporting 5G networks will increase to 65%, or 9.295 million units. It can be seen that the penetration rate of 5G PC is increasing year by year, which directly drives the widespread application of 5G modules on the PC side. At present, 5G full-internet PCs have shown advantages in applications such as online education, remote office and streaming media, and will surely achieve more innovations in our lives and work in the future.
Source data: Strategic Analysis
Additionally, with operators such as Jio announcing ambitious plans to connect up to 100 million households in India to their 5G FWA networks, the number of FWA users is expected to grow significantly in the coming years
According to the forecast of the MIC report, by 2025, 5G FWA connections will cover 40 million households in approximately 52 countries around the world
Based on the above summary and prediction of the development of the Internet of Vehicles and 5G FWA markets, there is no doubt that these three areas are three "fertile black lands" for 5G's further development.
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