Is unemployment anxiety unnecessary? Deutsche Bank: Learning from history, AI will create more jobs

After ChatGPT became popular, there was a surge of talk about AI replacing humans. Two months ago, Goldman Sachs even stated in a report that the AI ​​revolution could replace 300 million white-collar jobs in Europe and the United States, with legal and administrative jobs being the most affected. Architects and engineers are also in danger of being eliminated.

However, Jim Reid, Deutsche Bank’s global head of research, disagrees with this view. In a recently released report, he stated that History has proven that AI will eventually create rather than destroy jobs, and that the AI ​​wave will create more jobs than the jobs it replaces.

Reid pointed out that fear and resistance to new technologies are the norm in human history.

In 1589, William Lee invented a knitting machine, which he believed would free millions of housewives from the heavy needlework. Queen Elizabeth I ultimately rejected the patent application, fearing that granting a patent for the knitting machine would put textile workers out of work.

Queen’s name:

"Your invention will turn all my poor subjects into beggars."

With the advent of the industrial revolution, the conflict between people and technology has become more intense.

At the beginning of the 19th century, British workers launched the Luddite Movement, which specialized in destroying machines. Unemployed workers gathered into gangs, burned and smashed machines that symbolized progress in an organized and disciplined manner, and forced employers to make concessions through violence.

Similar situations will be repeated later with every major technological breakthrough.

However, Reid believes that history tells us that in the long run, new technologies will not lead to job losses.

Reid pointed out that the unemployment data of G7 countries (seven major developed economies) show that the unemployment rate mainly fluctuates with the economic cycle and has minimal correlation with technological revolution. The median unemployment rate in the G7 countries is 3.8%, compared with 5% in Britain during the First Industrial Revolution in 1755.

He wrote:

"So even if all the jobs in 1755 ceased to exist and some tasks were replaced by machines, it would not lead to an ever-increasing spiral of unemployment."

Reid concluded:

Technology will always bring about the creation of wealth and time, extend the liberation of the labor force, replace more productive positions, and also bring about many unexpected industries and positions. ”

However, Reid’s analysis may have ignored the social unrest and unemployment that will occur in a short period of time after major technological changes. Although they will bring great impact to society and families, their consequences have been lost in the average number of history.

Although admits that the speed of development of AI technology and the types of jobs it replaces may be different from any technological revolution in history. But Reid's conclusion is still optimistic:

While there may be disruption in the labor market in the short term, the potential for harnessing AI to boost productivity is something we urgently need. This, in turn, will soon create more opportunities, jobs and wealth for society. ”

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