Messi has been waiting for this Hercules Cup for 16 years! AI prediction: Argentina champion

On December 18, the Qatar World Cup finals will officially begin.

The defending team France faces Argentina, which is seeking the third championship in team history. It is also a "civil war" between the two top stars and Paris Saint-Germain teammates Messi and Mbappe.

Facing such a strong opponent, who will win the championship?

Why don’t we see what the AI ​​says!

AI prediction: Argentina beats France with a small probability

The results are shown first. According to the predictions of the model, the probability of the two teams winning is very very close.

Among them, Argentina will lead with a very slight advantage, with a winning rate of 35.1%; in contrast, France is 35.0%.

Comprehensive winning rate: Argentina 50.2%, France 49.8%.

In the Twilight of the Gods, the last dance

The 2022 FIFA World Cup has extraordinary significance.

This year’s World Cup has been compared to “Twilight of the Gods.” This World Cup is likely to be the "last dance" for the superstars in Qatar.

Messi, Ronaldo, Modric, Di Maria, Suarez, Neuer, Lewandowski, Benzema, even Neymar... This is not a list, It is our youth.

Messi, the man who led Barcelona to win the Champions League four times and won seven Ballon d'Ors, is missing only the Hercules Cup from his list of honors.

2014 was the strongest year for the Argentina national team, and it was also the closest Messi came to the Hercules Cup.

This photo broke the hearts of countless fans

And this The Argentine team played in Qatar and was united as never before. Messi has truly integrated into the team system this time.

As the game progresses, more and more people admit that Messi does show his championship appearance.

It can be seen that Messi’s 45 shots (shots and opportunities created) in the final contributed to Argentina’s total shots 56.3%, which is almost the same as Maradona's impact on Argentina's 1986 World Cup victory.

The players in this Argentina team are generally more powerful than famous. Coach Scaloni has also created a set of tactics that are truly suitable for the Argentine team. In short, this year's Argentina team is more like a whole than ever before.

However, due to the lack of explosive wingers, the Argentina team relies too much on Messi. Once Argentina's midfield has no advantage, Messi's power is reduced by half.

Not since Maradona in 1986 has a country been as reliant on one player as Argentina was in the Messi era.

Moreover, Argentina's full-backs are weak and their defense is average. Especially when their physical fitness has declined and they have lost their ability to strangle, their individual defense capabilities are very limited.

If Argentina wants to win, it cannot count on Messi. It needs the younger generation such as Enzo, Lautaro and Alvarez to stand up and take the lead.

This popular video on station B expresses the voice of the majority of fans: "Messi, I don’t have a second youth to go to. I’m chasing you”

#This year’s French team is packed with superstars and has a luxurious lineup. Mbappe's speed gives all teams a headache.

The French team with Giroud, Mbappe, and Konate has a considerable advantage in most positions; and these stars are all in their prime.

Looking back at the past games of the French team in this World Cup, it can be seen that they were in a defensive posture most of the time. Facing strong opponents, they often handed over possession of the ball. other side.

However, in the quarterfinals of this World Cup, the side with the lowest ball possession rate won in the end.

Although Messi is the player most closely watched by his opponents, he is at the bottom of many offensive indicators in this tournament. leading position.

# As for the French team, although their defense capabilities are outstanding, they conceded goals in every game in this competition.

We all know that what determines how far a team can go in the World Cup is its shortcomings.

At present, the French may lack a real core (the French team was able to win the last World Cup, the core of the French team was Griezmann and Pogba, and this time, Mba Pei may not be worthy of this core).

Both Argentina and France are teams that pay more attention to defense, so it can be speculated that both sides will adopt a more cautious offensive strategy.

Although France's record against Argentina before this was not so good - they only won 3 times in 12 meetings and lost 2 times in 3 World Cup games. But that epic 4-3 victory at the last World Cup put Deschamps' side on the road to the title.

In fact, the French team has won seven consecutive World Cup knockout matches. Although it is two short of Brazil's record, they are likely to become the best after Brazil in 1962 and 1938. The third team after Italy to successfully defend the title.

Civil War in Paris: Messi vs. Mbappe

In this game, Messi It is still the key to Argentina's success.

Among the top five leagues in the Champions League this season, no one is more threatening than Messi. In non-penalty situations, on average, He has 1.2 expected goals per 90 minutes.

He has 5 goals and 3 assists in this competition, including a beautiful assist for Alvarez last time against Croatia.

So far, the 35-year-old veteran has scored a record-breaking 19 goals in his World Cup career.

In this World Cup, Messi has been involved in 43 of Argentina's opening shots, more than twice as many as any other player except De Paul (26). The only one who has contributed equally is Mbappe.

In the final, Messi is likely to score another goal, which will also make him the first person ever to score in every round of a single World Cup. The player who scored the goal.

According to AI predictions, Messi will take advantage of the gap left by Hernandez, and then cooperate with Alvarez to break through Varane and Konate Man defense.

As Messi’s teammate in Paris Saint-Germain, the strength of France’s Mbappe cannot be underestimated.

After all, he has already won the World Cup once.

Since Mbappe scored a goal in the previous final against Croatia, if he can score another goal this time, he will become the best player in the world at the age of 23. The youngest player to score in multiple finals.

Meanwhile, Mbappe and Griezmann both have the chance to become the fifth man to score in two finals, and the second (after 1958) and Wawa in 1962) who scored twice in a row.

Sports analytics enters the AI ​​era

Over the past decade, artificial intelligence in sports has emerged thanks to tracking data The revolution is focused on three key areas:

• Collecting deeper data using computer vision or wearable devices
• Leveraging tracking data for deeper type analysis
• Make more in-depth predictions to obtain better prediction results

For example, in this World Cup, we can use AI to analyze the performance of players when facing pressure. How to control the ball, while also dynamically assigning pressure levels to the three opponent players closest to the ball throughout the match and then determining the overall pressure level of the player in possession of the ball.

Take Messi, for example. He was subjected to high pressure 259 times while on the ball - 45 more times than any other player, and he averaged 40.9 times per 90 minutes, More minutes than any player who has played at least 300 minutes in this game.

Stats Perform’s AI predictive models are based on the world’s richest sports database and can be used to evaluate thousands of data points, as well as across Decades of historical season and game records. The model adjusts and transforms with a variety of data inputs:

• Game location and conditions

Whether it is home field advantage, regular season or postseason What time of the day will the game be played?

• The team’s specific data

The team’s strengths and weaknesses, historical matchup performance, Recent match-up performance

• Player specific data

Player’s strengths and weaknesses, historical and recent match-up performance

• Game situation

Current score, remaining time, regular time or overtime

Data collection

The main purpose of collecting data is to digitally reproduce it after the game, therefore, we need to know what happened (i.e. what the final result was), how it happened (i.e. describe what led to the resulting event) and how it was accomplished (i.e., how well the event performed).

Using high-level box-score statistics can give a good summary of a 90-minute football match, such as the number of shots each team has, the distribution of ball possession, which team has More corners, more fouls etc.

Event data provides additional background information on key moments during the game, with more details than box-score.

Similarly, the spatial data of the game (i.e. the spatial position of the players) can provide a visual reconstruction of some key events in the game, such as how a specific goal was scored. While it's not the same as watching a video, it's a quick digitized view of a real-world match that can be reconstructed in seconds.

Tracking data is the most detailed data currently captured in sports.

AI can obtain data about each player and football in the game by watching a large number of video recordings, thereby mapping their positions to the virtual stadium. To do this, the responsible CV model needs to perform the following three steps:

• Convert the pixels in the video into points representing the movement trajectories of the players and the ball for visualization.
• The movement trajectory of points within a certain period of time can be mapped to semantic events in motion (such as shooting).
• From identified events, expected metrics can be derived to explain how well a player performed in a specific event (i.e. expected goals).

Data analysis

However, the data just now cannot be directly used for game analysis.

On the one hand, the team’s strategy and formation are hidden in those data points; on the other hand, because the players’ positions on the court are constantly changing, the tracking data is full of noise. .

So, the team developed a way to better visualize and interpret tracking data - "average formation".

From this, it is possible to analyze how the team's structure evolves when attacking or defending, or how it compares in different contexts, situations or formations.

# During a match, the AI ​​can also display average match action alongside live matches represented as dots on the pitch map.

Simply put, the home team is shown in blue, the visiting team is shown in red, and the "third team" is shown in white to show how other teams usually handle the same situation.

In addition, the coach can also input the tactics he wants to try, and then let the AI ​​simulate the corresponding execution results.

Written at the end

In the Twilight of the Gods, we are all remnants of the old era.

In more than thirty hours, we will usher in the peak battle between Argentina and France.

Some people say: There will be no more Messi after the World Cup in Qatar. This time, it will be the swan song of the last king of football. Will he win the World Cup?

Can the French team defend the title again?

Now, the atmosphere of the Franco-Arab war is in place, let us wait and see!

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