Bitcoin (BTC) 'Trader' Group Profits Have Shot Up Recently, But Are They As High As at the Last Top?

1 To 3 Months Old Bitcoin Investors Are Currently Up 47%

A key on-chain metric suggests that Bitcoin (BTC) traders are currently sitting on unrealized profits of 47%, putting them close to the levels seen at the last crypto top.

What Is Bitcoin Traders' Profit/Loss Margin?

CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno recently highlighted a segment of the BTC investors that are currently up by 47%. But how does one arrive at this number?

Moreno uses the metric "Profit/Loss Margin" to gauge the net profit or loss realized by Bitcoin investors over a specific time frame. This indicator is obtained by going through the transaction history of all coins in circulation to find the last price at which they were moved.

If the last transfer price for any token is less than the current spot value, then that particular coin can be assumed to be holding an unrealized profit. In contrast, coins of the opposite type are considered to be carrying some net loss.

The Profit/Loss Margin sums these profits and losses for the entire network, representing the net situation in the market.

More specifically, the metric used here considers the Profit/Loss Margin of only those BTC investors who bought their coins at least one month and three months ago. These investors are typically classified as "traders" due to their shorter-term investment strategies.

Now,はこちらからどうぞ Morenoが共有したチャートで過去 1 年間の BTC トレーダーのトレンドを示しています。

上のグラフに示すように、トレーダーの Bitcoin 損益率は最近プラスの領域に急上昇しており、これらの投資家が現在多額の利益を上げていることを示しています。

具体的には、このコホートは最近の価格急騰から 47% の純利益を上げています。歴史的に見ると、投資家の利益が高いほど、仮想通貨価格の上昇がピークを迎えています。

その理由は、保有者の利益が大きくなるにつれて、利益確定のために保有物を売却する誘惑に駆られるためです。トレーダーは特に売却に参加する可能性が高く、このコホートには比較的未熟で簡単にパニックになる傾向があるためです。

チャートによると、3 月の上昇は、この指標が約 69% だったときに発生しました。これまでのところ、この指標はまだそれほど高くなってはいません。

とはいえ、BTC は昨年 12 月にも上昇し、トレーダーの損益率は 48% でした。これは最新の値よりわずか 1% 高いものです。

利益確定のリスクにもかかわらず、Bitcoin の上昇が続くのか、それともまず冷却期間が訪れるのかはまだわかりません。

BTC Price

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $88,800, up over 16% from last week.

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