Bitcoin (BTC) Price May Consolidate in October as Capital Exits the Market, But Q4 Expectations Remain Positive

Public data from crypto exchanges indicates that capital has been flowing out of the market over the past month. This trend may affect the market's short-term price momentum.

Crypto exchange capital outflows may impact short-term price momentum.

Bitcoin's October performance could be influenced by capital outflows.

Data from Defillama's CEX Transparency shows that 9 out of 10 major crypto exchanges experienced negative inflows in the past month. These exchanges include Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, FTX, OKX, Huobi, Gate.io, Deribit, and Bitfinex.

The total capital flowing out of these exchanges amounted to $2.68 billion, encompassing both altcoins and stablecoins.

Further analysis using Nansen's data reveals a significant decrease in stablecoin liquidity on exchanges. According to the data, the stablecoin balance on exchanges sharply declined from $38.5 billion to $35 billion, indicating a net outflow of approximately $3.5 billion.

This outflow aligns with the recent observation that a majority of the capital flowing out of exchanges in the past month was in the form of stablecoins. When stablecoins enter exchanges, it usually signals potential buying pressure.

However, the recent outflow suggests a lack of momentum for upward price movements, indicating that investors are not actively increasing their crypto holdings.

BlackRock's ETF sees 256 BTC withdrawn

An on-chain address linked to BlackRock's ETF experienced a withdrawal of 256 BTC, as observed by CryptoQuant. This institutional giant's actions are closely monitored, serving as an indicator of expectations among professional investors.

According to the chart, BlackRock's accumulation has slowed compared to earlier in 2024. Moreover, the institutional giant rarely makes any withdrawals, with the last major outflow being in May, when Bitcoin fell below $60,000.

Hence, this withdrawal may raise concerns among retail investors, especially considering the slowing accumulation by BlackRock throughout the year.

Coinglass's ETF Net Inflow data also shows that, during the first five trading days of October, three days recorded negative inflows. This suggests caution among Bitcoin ETF investors in October.

If the stablecoin outflows continue and Bitcoin balances in ETFs keep declining, the crypto market may not see any significant gains in October, despite many analysts expressing optimism for a positive Q4 for Bitcoin.

“Most of “Uptober” doesn’t start until after the 19th. Be patient.”

However, some investors remain optimistic, highlighting past price behavior where Bitcoin tends to start a rebound toward the end of the month.

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