Bitcoin's Poor Start to Bullish October Continues, but There May Be Cheer Ahead for Bulls

Most gains for bitcoin come in the latter part of the month.

Bitcoin started October with a poor performance as the asset briefly slid under $60,000 late Thursday, a move that liquidated over $144 million in bullish crypto bets.

BTC traded just over $61,300 to remain flat over the past 24 hours despite a volatile U.S. trading session. Ether, BNB and XRP showed losses up to 2%, while DOGE was up 2%.

Most gains for bitcoin appear in the latter part of the month, while the first week is generally bearish. Global benchmark Brent oil had its most significant one-day jump in almost a year. Bettors on Polymarket give a 63% chance that Israel will strike Iranian oil facilities in October.

Bitcoin’s poor start to its historically most bullish month continued as the asset briefly slid under $60,000 late Thursday, a move that liquidated over $144 million in bullish crypto bets, data showed.

Bitcoin was trading just over $61,300 at the time, remaining flat over the past 24 hours despite a volatile U.S. trading session. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization hit an all-time high of over $69,000 in November 2021.

Ether was down close to 2% to trade at $1,613, while BNB Chain’s BNB and XRP both showed losses of up to 1.7%. Memecoin dogecoin showed a slight gain of 2% on no immediate catalyst.

The CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index, which measures the largest tokens by market capitalization, was down 1% at last check.

Most Gains in Latter Half of October

Bitcoin is down over 6% since the start of October, data showed. The month has only twice ended in the red since 2013, chalking gains up to 60% and an average of 22% to make it the best for investor returns. That has dented social sentiment on X, with some users being bearish about price recovery.

However, CoinGlass data showed that most gains appear in the latter part of the month, while the first week is generally bearish – meaning current price action still remains in line with historical movements.

The second and third days of October have ended in green just six times since 2013, before recovering in the second week and large movements appear in the third week. Price jumps of as high as 16% generally appear after October 15.

Fundamental and macroeconomic factors ultimately weigh on trading sentiment for risk assets, such as bitcoin, and tensions in the Middle East have shifted investor interest to oil and gold.

Global benchmark Brent oil had its most significant one-day jump in almost a year and is on track for an 8% weekly gain, buoyed by the Middle Eastern tensions and a weaker dollar, both of which could bode well for crypto markets.

Macro Factor: Middle Eastern Tensions

Looking at macroeconomics for a moment, markets were shook earlier this month by geopolitical tension in the middle east. Bettors on Polymarket are giving a 63% chance that Israel will strike Iranian oil facilities in October, but only a 35% chance that they will hit Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The U.S. presidential election is also looking as close as ever on Polymarket, with the two candidates either briefly tying the race or fighting over a 1 percentage point lead, a race that could also impact markets.

Donald Trump-themed TREMP, a Solana meme coin named after the Republican candidate, was up 14% at the time, while the original MAGA Trump token was flat, according to CoinGecko data. The Kamala Harris-themed KAMA token was down 7.5%.

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