Theory and Bitcoin's Path
Market analysts are keeping a close watch on Bitcoin’s trajectory as it enters its fifth and final Elliott Wave, potentially signaling a surge in value beyond historical peaks. This wave, typically the last stage of an uptrend in Elliott Wave theory, could indicate a pivotal moment for cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin’s Path in Elliott Wave Theory
Recent analyses by Mikybull, a crypto market specialist, suggest that Bitcoin is on the cusp of the fifth wave. This stage usually marks the climax of price movements within the Elliott Wave theory, making it a crucial juncture. Data from Mikybull’s recent post on social platform X shows Bitcoin navigating through its prior waves. The third wave culminated in March 2023 with an all-time high of $73,000, following a recovery from the lowest cycle point of $15,000 in late 2022.
After this peak, Bitcoin entered a corrective fourth wave, experiencing a 13% decline from its highest value. According to Mikybull’s projections, this adjustment phase is nearing completion, setting the stage for a significant rise.
Two primary targets are identified for the upcoming fifth wave: $95,000, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level, and a more ambitious $143,000 at the 2.618 level.
Analysis of Bitcoin Halving Trends
Complementing the Elliott Wave perspective is Coinvo’s analysis of Bitcoin’s halving cycles. These events, which reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half, have historically triggered substantial price movements.
Coinvo's report highlights a pattern of diminishing returns with each halving: a 9,483% increase after the first, tapering to 702% post the third halving.
Coinvo’s analysis suggests that a fourth and final halving will lead to a 124% price increase, potentially pushing Bitcoin’s value to approximately $143,881. This projection aligns with the predictions based on Elliott Wave theory, providing dual-analytical support for the anticipated price surge.
BTC/USD Price Trend
Despite the bullish projection, a bearish chain has developed, with traders taking profits from the recent BTC rally. This resistance proved too strong, leading to a temporary pullback in the price. However, many analysts believe that this correction could pave the way for further growth in the long term.
BTC/USD Four Hour Price Chart (Binance)
At press time, BTC was retesting $61,455 around the 61.8% Fibonacci level, which encountered strong resistance. Supposedly, if this low is maintained and the bounce back persists in the near term, the BTC token might be challenging its recent high at $63.54K, with the potential to surpass it.
Additionally, a break above this threshold could further push the asset’s value past the hypothetical $65K hurdle, indicating a robust bullish sentiment. Contrastingly, market analysts forecast a fall to deeper levels should the $61,000 low be breached.
If this move succeeds, the cryptocurrency could aim for lower lows around the $59.77K threshold and $58,916 level. The $56,500 will be tested if selling pressure intensifies, leading to a potential downward trend.
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