Last month, Apple just released the latest iPad Pro 2024. In order to provide timely evaluation guide to fans who follow Lei Technology, Xiao Lei spent a huge sum of 16,599 yuan on the day of release to buy a 13-inch 1T version of the iPad Pro M4.

After the review, Xiaolei originally wanted to sell the 99% new iPad Pro back to health. I never expected that the price of this new phone, which was released less than a month ago, would drop in price beyond imagination. Xiaolei listed the price at 12,000 yuan on a second-hand platform, but no one took it for several days. He even asked a friend for a small knife for 500 yuan. He bluntly said that there are very few users who buy the 1T version for personal use, and 11,500 yuan is already a very sincere price. .

Photo source: Xianyu

The second-hand platform couldn’t sell it, so Xiaolei approached the recycling platform again, but the estimated price quoted by the platform was lower than the user’s, and it went directly to 11,147 yuan. There is also an exclusive coupon for the first order that adds 18% credit. If calculated based on 11,500 yuan, the monthly depreciation rate of this 13-inch 1T iPad Pro M4, which has been purchased for just one month, is as high as 30%, and the price drops as fast as a rocket.

Picture source: Zhuanzhuan

Once upon a time, Apple products such as iPhone and Apple Watch were still the favorites of scalpers: the supply was small, the user base was large, and the room for speculation was not small. They were well-known "hard currencies" ”, it was almost a guaranteed profit without losing money, but this situation no longer exists.

Have you ever wondered why Apple products don’t retain their value?

The essence of value preservation is the relationship between supply and demand

On the surface, official price reductions are the direct cause of the successive price drops of Apple’s core products. On 618 this year, there is really not a lot of news about Apple. In just one hour after Tmall went on sale, Apple’s transaction volume exceeded 1.5 billion. Not only on a single platform, the iPhone has taken over the top three cumulative sales of mobile phones on almost all e-commerce platforms. As of now, the top three in JD Mobile’s 618 mobile phone cumulative list are still firmly occupied by iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPhone 15 Pro, and iPhone 15.

Is Apple 618 sales good? It's really good, but it comes at a reduced price. Take the iPhone 15 128GB version as an example. The price on Tmall is 4,599 yuan, which is 1,400 yuan lower than the price on Apple’s official website. The iPhone 15 128GB version on JD.com is priced at 4,749 yuan. PLUS members can get it at a higher discount and save another 40 yuan. It’s the turn of Pinduoduo, which is gaining momentum, and the iPhone 15 128GB version is priced at 4,398 yuan.

Source: Pinduoduo

The iPhone 15 series models are priced on average 1,000-2,000 yuan lower than the official starting price. It’s no wonder consumers are crazy. But maintaining this situation for a long time is obviously not what Apple wants to see.

iPhone has always been Apple’s growth engine. Apple delivered a good report card last year: iPhone global shipments surpassed Samsung for the first time, taking the top spot in sales; the annual net profit exceeded US$100 billion, making a lot of money The bowl is full.

However, some small flaws can still be seen in this nearly perfect answer sheet. In Q4 of 2023, Apple's revenue in Greater China fell by 12.9% year-on-year, and with the continued efforts of domestic manufacturers, Apple's decline in the domestic market will continue in 2024.

A key to judging the competitiveness of flagship mobile phones is price stability. The price reduction of core products reflects that Apple’s competitiveness is becoming smaller. In the final analysis, the relationship between supply and demand determines the value retention rate. When people no longer chase, it is natural that Apple products will not retain their value.

Toothpaste-style updates cannot retain users

In the field of consumer electronics, there is a saying that has been circulating - "Buy new, not old". For smartphones, computers and other products, each generation update will basically bring some new changes, at least in terms of performance, attracting users to buy new products.

With the maturity of various consumer electronic products, the update cycle of electronic products is becoming faster and faster. When consumers are faced with the dazzling array of new products on the market, they often tend to buy the latest models and ignore those "old" products. The "old" here is not only the year of the product, but also the technology.

This phenomenon is particularly obvious in the smartphone market. The competition between the two camps of Apple and Android has always been a risk mark for the smartphone industry. Five years ago, Android phones were upgraded along with Apple; five years later, everything has been reversed. Many new technologies, new designs, and new features were introduced first on Android flagships, and Apple followed suit.

Photo source: Photographed by Lei Technology

例えば、Androidの主力携帯電話にAI大型モデルが採用されると、ミッドレンジ携帯電話や千元携帯電話にも大型モデルが搭載されます。 Apple AI はまだウォームアップ中です。Apple Intelligence は WWDC24 までリリースされず、AI 機能はバッチでロック解除する必要があります。一部の機能は来年まで正式に利用できない可能性があります。

スマートフォンの需要が旺盛な時代であれば、Appleのアップデートの遅れの影響はそれほど大きくなかったかもしれません。しかし、海外の分析機関TechInsightsによると、世界のスマートフォンの買い替え率は過去10年間で低下しているという。 2023 年の消費者の買い替えサイクルはさらに延長され、史上最長の 51 か月に達します。これは、平均的な人が携帯電話を 4 年に 1 回買い換えるのに相当します。

国内市場は比較的良好ですが、消費者の平均買い替えサイクルは40か月以上で、多くの人は少なくとも3年半ごとに携帯電話を買い替えます。

携帯電話の乗り換え意欲が低い環境の一方で、素材、技術、デザイン、機能などについて狂ったように騒ぎ立てる Android 陣営。安定したマイクロマーケットを維持する仏教のアップル。多くの Apple ユーザーはまさにこの理由から、「果物を捨てて卓越性を追求する」ことを選択していると思います。

ユーザーは徐々にブランドをプレミアムだと認識するようになりました

長い間、Apple製品は、デザイン、エコロジー、パフォーマンス、ユーザーエクスペリエンスにおける利点により消費者に支持されてきました。しかし、その価格の高さも多くの消費者を落胆させます。 Apple の技術革新のペースがそのつり上げられた価格戦略に追いつくことができれば、それほど大きな論争は起こらないかもしれないが、iPhone が過去 2 年間で新たな段階に到達したことは誰もが知っている。

iPhone 15を例に挙げると、プロセッサがA15からA16にアップグレードされたことを除けば、他の構成は2022年のiPhone 14とほぼ同じであり、A16プロセッサが実際にリリースされることは言うまでもありません。 2022年に。

現在の観点から見ると、Apple は 2023 年後半に実際には 2022 年に属する携帯電話を発売しました。同時に、国内の携帯電話の性能はAppleのA16プロセッサを上回りました。また、国内携帯電話は、画面、充電速度、バッテリー容量、電波受信などの周辺構成においてもiPhone 15を上回りました。

それでも、iPhoneの価格は、国内の同価格帯の携帯電話と比較すると、はるかに高いです。 Android陣営の多くのミッドレンジモデルは12+256GBから始まり、16+1TBのトップエンドモデルでも、本当に大容量のメモリが必要なユーザーにとっては、500元または600元を追加するだけで十分です。それぞれ。

写真出典: Bilibili @林伊LYi

Apple側では、iPhone 15の開始価格は当初5,000か6,000でしたが、ユーザーに提供したのは6+128GBのメモリの組み合わせのみでした。 256GBにアップグレードしたい場合は、1000元を追加する必要があります。Apple製品の「黄金のメモリ」という表現は実際には誇張ではないと言えます。 Apple ユーザーにとって、現在の iPhone には、安定した iOS とバンドルされた Apple エコシステムという 2 つの利点しかないようです。

しかし、Apple の価格戦略は想像されているほど堅実ではありません。 1 月 15 日、Apple の公式 Web サイトは、ほぼすべての Apple 製品を対象とするプロモーション情報を公開しました。実際、Apple が公式 Web サイトで値下げを開始したのはこれが初めてではありません。同様の政策は過去 2 年間に実施されていますが、その頻度は低く、JD.com や JD.com などのサードパーティ プラットフォームで行われることが多くなっています。天モール。

次に何が起こったかは誰もが知っています。Appleの主力製品が次々と値下げされました。 Xiao Lei氏の見解では、同様の状況は今後も時々起こり、その頻度はますます高くなるだろう。iPhoneなどのApple製品が製品力で絶対的な優位性を取り戻すには、Appleは安定化するためにプロモーション手法に頼らなければならないだろう。スマートフォン市場におけるiPhoneの地位。

携帯電話の変更を急いでいないフォロワーは、もう少し待って、618と同様の値下げを享受できるかもしれません。

価値維持の後光はもう存在しません。電子製品にはまだ通貨が存在しますか?

価値維持といえば、茅台は避けては通れない名詞であり、価値維持率の高い製品には「電子茅台」「サイバー茅台」などの名前が付けられてきました。ここ数年、高騰していた茅台酒の価格が徐々に下がってきていることに気づいたかどうかわかりませんが、618年の間に飛天茅台酒の価格は約2,200元に達しました。価値保存の元祖は冷め始めているが、他の分野での「○○茅台」はまだ生き残る道はあるのだろうか？

エレクトロニクス製品の発展の歴史を見てみると、iPhone、Huawei Mate X5、Fuji Camera...いわゆる「電子茅台」がどの時代にも登場し、やがてこれらのおなじみの名前が発展してきました。科学と技術の進歩により、価値の保存場所としての評判は徐々に失われてきました。

写真出典: Lei Technology 撮影

まとめると、電子製品の価値の維持は一般的なルールではなく、ブランド、市場の需要、テクノロジーなどの多くの要因の影響を受けます。更新速度を待ってください。

예를 들어 아프리카 시장에서는 일부 저가형 전자제품이 정확한 시장 포지셔닝과 저렴한 가격으로 사용자들에게 큰 사랑을 받고 있습니다. 이에 반해 이들 제품은 중국시장에서 장난감이나 기능성 기계로 가장 저렴하게 판매되고 있어 전자제품의 가치유지율은 지역 및 시장수요에 따라 변화할 것임을 보여준다.

한편, 특정 기간의 전자 제품(공급망 문제 및 수요 급증으로 인해 급격한 가격 상승으로 이어짐)도 전자 경화가 될 가능성이 있습니다. 예를 들어, 채굴 붐 시기의 그래픽 카드, 위험 관리 기간 동안의 게임 콘솔 등이 있습니다. 일부 특정 상품은 특정 시기와 지역에서 새로운 전자 화폐가 될 수 있습니다.

그러나 전반적으로 전자제품의 급격한 업그레이드와 기술 반복은 모든 전자제품의 가치 유지율에 부정적인 영향을 미칠 것입니다. 일정한 조건이 충족되지 않으면 우리 손에 있는 전자제품은 결국 가치하락의 운명을 피할 수 없고, 영원한 전자화폐도 없습니다.

2024년 5월 20일부터 6월 30일까지 Taobao, Tmall, JD.com, Pinduoduo, Douyin, Kuaishou 및 Xiaohongshu의 6대 전자상거래 플랫폼이 총체적으로 618 중간 세일이 시작됩니다. "내 조언을 들어라", 사전 판매를 취소하고 미친듯이 가격을 깎으세요!

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