Powell's 'dove release”, BTC's response was muted

Written by Mary Liu, BitpushNews

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell concluded his two-day semi-annual congressional hearing. He talked about the current monetary policy, acknowledging that considerable progress has been made on inflation, while stating that before cutting interest rates Inflation does not need to be below 2%, and there is no specific inflation number to determine a rate cut.

Market watchers generally expect at least two interest rate cuts in 2024, and Powell's dovish comments reinforced that expectation. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders now see a 75% chance of a rate cut in September, up from 73% yesterday.

The stock market interpreted this statement positively, and optimism pushed U.S. stocks to new highs one after another. Both the S&P index and the Nasdaq index rose for seven consecutive days and hit record highs in intraday trading. As of Wednesday's close, The S&P, Dow Jones and Nasdaq all rose sharply, rising 1.02%, 1.09% and 1.18% respectively. The S&P closed above 5,600 points for the first time in history.

The crypto market is still consolidating. BTC rose to a high of $59,500 in early trading on Wednesday, but fell under pressure in the afternoon and fell back below $58,000. As of press time, BTC was trading at $57,557, a 24-hour drop of 0.36%. .

The altcoin market is mixed. Among the top 200 altcoins by market capitalization, SATS (1000SATS) led the way with an increase of 21.7%, followed by Siacoin (SIA) with an increase of 17%, and Rocket Pool (RPL) with an increase of 13.9%. Dog [Runes] (DOG) led the way down, down 5.7%, with Galxe (GAL) and Flare (FLR) both down 4.7%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrency is US$2.12 trillion, and Bitcoin’s share is 53.4%.

The German government’s coin sale is about to end

On Wednesday, the German government once again transferred more than 10,853 Bitcoins to various CEX and market maker addresses, worth $637.7 million. According to data from the on-chain analysis platform Arkham, the recipients of these transfers include Flow Traders, Coinbase, Kraken, Cumberland DRW and B2C2 Group, presumably intend to sell.

Data shows that as of press time, the German government still holds approximately 15,520 Bitcoins, worth more than $890 million.

Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by around 17% since German authorities began moving funds to exchanges on June 18, hitting a low of $53,500 last week. Many analysts believe that if the German government address continues to be transferred at the current rate, all of its confiscated Bitcoins may be sold by the end of this week.

ETF inflows remain “healthy”

Flows into U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have increased, with a total of $654.3 million flowing into these products in the three trading days since July 4 .

Although ETF inflows have been erratic over the past few months following record highs, overall ETF demand remains healthy.

ETF Store President Nate Geraci tweeted yesterday: "Today alone, the money put into BlackRock IBIT exceeds the combined assets of nearly 90% of all 300+ ETFs launched this year. Most ETF offerings Businesses are struggling to get $121 million in daily inflows, while IBIT has absorbed $18 billion in six months. Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said: "It's a 'pretty good' day for IBIT." (such as $121 million yesterday), which is more than the total assets under management at the end of the year for most ETFs launched this year. About 500 ETFs were launched last year, and we are halfway through 2024, and 76% of them still have assets below $121 million. . It is difficult for new issuers to attract US$100 million in funds in the ETF market. However, since the launch of IBIT, the number of days it has attracted more than US$100 million has reached 60 times!”

Analyst: BTC needs at least Reclaiming the range low of $60,000 as support

Secure Digital Markets analysts believe that Bitcoin will encounter continued short selling after every rebound. The key level to watch is $60,500. A breakthrough of this level will mean that Bitcoin Back into bullish territory.

In terms of Bitcoin prices, market analyst Rekt Capital pointed out that although Bitcoin prices briefly exceeded $59,000 in early trading on Wednesday, they subsequently fell back below $58,000, indicating that "Bitcoin is not ready to break the downward trend." BTC “The range low of $60,600 needs to be reclaimed as support to return to the re-accumulation range broken out last week.”

Market analyst Mustache took a bullish view, noting that Bitcoin is about to experience the 100-day moving average for the first time in its history and the 200-day moving average crossover.

CryptoQuant On-chain data shows that Bitcoin is at a critical stage of this market cycle, as several factors predict that the price will continue to decline, while others indicate that the price is about to bottom.

With the Bitcoin Profit and Loss (P&L) Index hovering near its 365-day moving average, the previous downward crossover was a precursor to the deep decline that began in May and November 2021, leading to a major correction in the market. Additionally, Tether’s market capitalization growth, often considered a key driver of bull markets, has stalled.

However, data shows that Bitcoin whales are continuing to accumulate at the fastest pace in more than a year, with whales’ Bitcoin holdings increasing by 6.3% during the month, hitting the highest level since April 2023.

Some other positive factors, such as the upcoming approval of the Ethereum ETF by the US SEC, all imply that despite signs of weakness in the short term, it will continue to rise in the long term. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise, also said in a report that the key The positive factors could push Bitcoin to $100,000 by the end of the year.

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