BTC regains $63,000, with multiple data suggesting it may have hit bottom

The crypto market started the second half of the year in higher mode on Monday. The latest U.S. manufacturing activity data showed that the U.S. manufacturing PMI fell further into contraction territory in June, hitting a four-month low, boosting investor hopes that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates in September as the economy appears to show weakness sign. Investors are still awaiting the June jobs report due out on Friday, which could provide more support for a rate cut if it shows signs of further cooling in the labor market. BitTweet data shows that Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above the support level of $62,800 in early trading and hit a daily high of $63,820 after midday. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,263, with a 24-hour increase of 2 %.

Most of the top 200 altcoins by market cap are following Bitcoin higher.

1. LayerZero (LZO) was the biggest gainer, rising 15.1% to trade at $3.83.
2. Bonk (BONK) is up 14.1%.
3. Ethereum Name Service (ENS) rose 11.7%.

Altcoin with the biggest decline:

1. Arkham (ARKM) fell 8.7%.
2. Convex Finance (CVX) fell 7.1%.
3. io.net (IO) fell 4.4%.

The current overall market value of cryptocurrency is US$2.32 trillion, and Bitcoin’s market share is 53.5%.

In terms of U.S. stocks, as of the end of the day, the S&P Index, Dow Jones Index and Nasdaq Index all closed higher, up 0.27%, 0.13% and 0.83% respectively.

Bitcoin price may be close to or has already hit bottom

CryptoQuant data shows that Bitcoin’s premium index on Coinbase has fallen to its lowest level since the FTX crash.

David Lawant, head of research at the cryptocurrency trading platform FalconX, posted on the months ago".
According to data from analytics firm CryptoQuant, the indicator was chronically negative for much of June and May, mirroring the market downturn in August and September last year. On Friday, the indicator fell to nearly -0.19, its lowest value since the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in November 2022.
The negative value in early November 2022 coincided with BTC’s bear market low below $16,000, before the price surged to nearly $25,000 in February. An increase of more than 50%.
The August 2023 premium bottom occurred just weeks before Bitcoin hit a local bottom around $25,000. Subsequently, BTC has been fluctuating in a range. From October to January, driven by expectations of the US Bitcoin ETF, the price of BTC first doubled and then hit a record high.
Lawant said: “At least recently, the Coinbase premium has become a reliable, confirming and even forward-looking indicator of overall market trends, which highlights the important influence of the U.S. market in determining market price formation. There are signs that the next 6 to 12 It’s going to be an exciting month, but it could also be volatile.”
Given that several upcoming catalysts are centered on the US market - such as ETF flows, US monetary policy and the presidential election, he said he expects this trend to continue.
Tailwinds and Headwinds
Despite the rebound, Bitfinex analysts noted that Bitcoin failed to maintain the positive tone it started the year with, with specific factors further creating headwinds for digital asset prices in recent weeks, ending the first half on a sluggish note.
BTC also decoupled from the U.S. stock market in June as long-term holders resumed selling while oversupply impacted the market.
Analysts said: “The policy environment has led to lower volatility, and Bitcoin prices have suffered as a result. BTC has struggled to maintain upward momentum, decoupling from the US stock market, and long-term Bitcoin holders who paused selling in early May are back. Despite mining Reduced selling by companies suggests the market has stabilized, but continued cashing out by long-term holders means the near-term outlook is fragile.
At the same time, oversupply continues to weigh on the market, with Mt. Criminal Police Bundeskriminalamt may sell Bitcoin, potential selling pressure exists.” As for tailwinds, Bitfinex emphasized that “the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures index, remained unchanged in May, indicating that inflation is currently only slightly higher. ”
They said: “There are hopes that this may prompt a rate cut in September, and the case for such action is supported by the third estimate of US first-quarter GDP, which showed that despite a small increase, But the economic fundamentals are still weak. In addition, consumer confidence is declining due to high mortgage rates and limited supply, and the proportion of consumers planning to buy a home is lower. "
Back to the direct impact on Bitcoin prices, Analysts at Bitfinex said that while "profits are expected in a bull market, the scale of recent selling by long-term holders" has raised "concerns."
They warned: “If long-term holders continue to profit at current levels (which we believe is unlikely to be the case in the longer term), this could put downward pressure on Bitcoin prices in the short term, with the potential to continue The current decline and impact on the bull market in the medium term ”

While many analysts have described Bitcoin’s sideways price action over the past four months as “boring,” Ki Young, founder and CEO of crypto analytics firm CryptoQuant. Ju said on the

Bitcoin is still in a bull cycle.

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