TechInsights: North America will no longer lead global smartphone replacement rates in 2024

According to news on July 1, since the advent of the iPhone in 2007, the mobile phone replacement rate in North America has always ranked first in the world. However, replacement rates in North America have continued to decline since 2012, until they were close to parity with other regions in 2019. The latest research from the TechInsights smartphone team shows that in 2024, the Central and Latin America (CALA) region will surpass North America with a replacement rate of 28.2%, and the replacement cycle in both regions is 43 months. The global replacement rate is 23.8%, with a cycle of 51 months. Central and Eastern Europe will overtake Central and Latin America in smartphone replacement rates from 2027 to 2029.

▲Smartphone replacement rate in various regions around the world: 2008-2029

TechInsights predicts that from 2025 to 2026, Central America and Latin America will still have the highest replacement rates, at 28.8% and 29.6% respectively, equivalent to 42-month and 41-month replacement cycles.

However, starting in 2027, the agency predicts that replacement rates in Central Europe and Eastern Europe will surpass Central and Latin America, reaching 30.8%, and will continue to rise to 33.8% - a new high in the region. This reflects the maturity of the smartphone market and the lack of new features to attract consumers.

1. North American phone replacement rate declines
   As far as North America is concerned, the United States has driven the decline in the replacement rate in the region, as the 27.7% replacement rate in the United States this year is far lower than Canada’s 31.4%.
2. The main reason for the change in the business model of US operators
   is that US operators have gradually abandoned the dominant subsidy model since 2014/2015 and switched to mobile phone finance (note: the so-called EIP plan) and mobile phone leasing model.
3. New business models inhibit upgrades
   Compared to subsidy models, these new business models typically lock customers into three-year plans rather than two-year plans and inhibit upgrades at the end of the contract, as they have to wait until they are paid off Lower monthly costs after cell phone charges.
4. The quality of smartphones has improved, but innovation has been limited
   In addition, the improvement of smartphone quality and limited hardware innovation are also one of the reasons for the extended replacement cycle of smartphones in North America.
5. Contract duration extension in Western Europe
   A similar trend has emerged in Western Europe. Although operators have not abandoned the subsidy model, in many cases, the contract duration has also been extended to three years.

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