Foresight Ventures: DOGE MEME prototype dies, BTC ETF continues to see net inflows

A. Market view

1. Macro liquidity

Monetary liquidity improves. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that policymakers were concerned that there was insufficient progress in lowering inflation, suggesting that the wait-and-see mode of maintaining high interest rates should last longer. The U.S. dollar index fell on a weekly basis amid repeated interest rate cut expectations. U.S. technology stocks continued to lead the market higher, with all three major stock indexes hitting record highs. Crypto markets followed U.S. stocks’ strong rebound.

2. Full market conditions

Top 100 market capitalization gainers:

BTC rebounded this week, with ETH leading the gains sharply. The main line of the market revolves around the ETH and Meme sectors.

1. ETH: The U.S. SEC requires accelerated updating of ETH ETF application documents. The probability of ETF passing is increased from 25% to 75%. The deadline for passing several ETFs is from May 23 to August 7. However, Bloomberg predicts that the ETH ETF will only reach 10% of the size of the BTC ETF.

2.ZKSYNC: L2’s Zksync plans to airdrop in June, with a total number of 21 billion tokens and a market value of US$10 billion expected by the market. ARB, OP, and STRK in the same track all have a market value of about US$12 billion.

3.LISTA: Binance Exchange Metadrop platform will list LISTA, which is a liquidity staking and decentralized stablecoin protocol. Metadrop's latest two BB and LISTA are projects made by the original Bsc chain Auction and Hay team, and are slightly less innovative.

3. BTC market

1) On-chain data

Long-term holders of BTC declined, short-term holders increase. There are local divergences in the market, new inflows have slowed, and long-term volatility has subsided.

#The market value of stablecoins remains flat, and long-term funding fundamentals are still good.

The long-term trend indicator MVRV-ZScore is based on the total market cost and reflects the overall profitability of the market. When the indicator is greater than 6, it is the top range; when the indicator is less than 2, it is the bottom range. MVRV fell below the key level of 1, with holders generally in the red. The current indicator is 2.5, entering the intermediate stage.

Institutional funds have reversed the trend of capital outflows for 2 consecutive weeks, and investors are optimistic about the outlook.

2) Futures market

Futures funding rate: The rate increased slightly this week. The fee rate is 0.05-0.1%, and the long leverage is high, which is the short-term top of the market; the fee rate is -0.1-0%, the short leverage is high, and it is the short-term bottom of the market.

Futures positions: BTC positions increased sharply this week, and the main players in the market entered the market.

Futures long-short ratio: 1.3, market sentiment is neutral. Retail investor sentiment is mostly a contrarian indicator, with a reading below 0.7 indicating panic and a reading above 2.0 indicating greed. The long-short ratio data fluctuates greatly, and the reference significance is weakened.

3) Spot market

BTC rebounded to near a new high. The probability of ETH spot ETF passing has increased significantly, triggering a general rise in the altcoin season.

B. Market data

1. Total lockup of the public chain Quantity situation

2. TVL proportion of each public chain

##The total TVL this week was 106.3 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of about 13.1 billion U.S. dollars. is 14%. ETH rose nearly 30% this week, directly breaking through $3,800. ETH led a wave of market climax. TVL of all mainstream public chains rose this week, with the ETH chain rising by 20%, the TRON chain rising by 3%, the BSC chain rising by 9%, the SOLANA chain rising by 7%, the ARB chain rising by 18%, the BLAST chain rising by 28%, and the most outstanding performer, MERLIN The chain has surged by 171% this week, with Merchant Finance’s TVL increasing by 41,730% in the past week. Merchant Finance is a financial lending platform developed on the Merlin chain, allowing users to borrow p2p through smart contract interaction.

3. The lock-up amount of each chain protocol

1) The lock-up amount of ETH

2) BSC lock-up amount

3) Polygon lock-up Volume situation

4) Arbitrum lock-up volume situation

5) Optimism lock-up amount

6) Base lock-up amount

7) Solana lock-up volume

4. Changes in NFT market data

1) NFT-500 Index

2) NFT market situation

3) NFT trading market share

##4) NFT buyer analysis

The floor prices of blue-chip projects in the NFT market have risen and fallen this week, and the market performance is still sluggish. ETH’s lead this week did not bring any signs of recovery to the NFT market. This week BAYC fell 5%, CryptoPunks fell 12%, DeFrogs fell 3%, LilPudgys fell 8%, Pudgy Penguins and Azuki both rose 10%, Milady rose 27%, MAYC rose 6%, Pixelmon rose 21%, DeGods fell 29% . The transaction volume of the NFT market continues to decline, and the number of first-time purchasers and repeat purchasers has not rebounded significantly.

5. The latest financing situation of the project

##6. Post-investment dynamics

1) MYX Finance — DeFi

MYX_Finance is a revolutionary derivatives protocol characterized by a highly scalable, cost-effective matching pool mechanism (MPM)

2) Morph —Layer2

Morph will collaborate with @LaMultisig to host a Consumer Chain Day event on Wednesday, May 29th GMT . At the same time, the first season of Morph Zoo has released multiple opportunities to obtain Morph Points, and corresponding airdrop opportunities can be unlocked in the future

3) Oyl —Wallet

Oyl launches Oyl Wallet and redefines the Bitcoin wallet experience to adapt to the new wave of the BTC ecosystem. With the launch of private beta, Oyl is inviting early adopters to experience Ordinals and Bitcoin DeFi.

Oyl Wallet is redefining the way you interact with Bitcoin: An all-in-one platform: Integrating all essential functions (such as purchasing, login and UTXO management) directly into the wallet, reducing dependence on external applications and markets . Advanced trading tools: Make complex trading tools simple and intuitive, transforming complex multi-application experiences into smooth one-click functions.

Bitcoin DeFi: Providing in-wallet tools for professional traders and enthusiasts, constantly innovating user functionality in a single application. Oyl Wallet is based on the strong infrastructure of Sandshrew and Metashrew. Features such as market aggregators, batch signing, and custom indexing allow developers to seamlessly integrate and try out new protocols and applications.