Bitcoin (BTC) has gained 21% since it retested the sub-$50,000 level on Aug. 5, but its price has struggled to maintain above $62,000.
Bitcoin BTC price remained rangebound on Sept. 12 as traders awaited the next directional move following BTC's 21% rally from the sub-$50,000 level on Aug. 5. The flagship digital asset is now trading at a crucial juncture, priced at $60,880 with several conflicting trends emerging in the market.
Bitcoin price stalls at $62K resistance as derivatives show low buyer interestBitcoin price has struggled to maintain levels above $62,000 despite several attempts, while derivatives metrics indicate that there is limited buyer interest at higher price points.
On the other hand, macroeconomic indicators suggest that traders are increasingly shifting away from cash positions, which is a development that has historically favored Bitcoin. Interestingly, these stock market gains have coincided with a notable decline in US Treasury yields, which signals robust demand for these traditionally safe instruments.
In essence, traders are now willing to accept lower returns on fixed-income assets, likely reflecting a growing confidence in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) strategy to curb inflation without sparking a recession. The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates on Sept. 18, after maintaining rates above 4% since December 2022.
Investors are focusing on stocks and bonds ahead of economic uncertaintyBitcoin's price action appears to be lagging behind the performance of the broader stock market and the bond market, which have both fully recovered from the sell-off in the first half of 2023.
The strong demand for government bonds, typically considered the safest asset class, doesn’t necessarily imply confidence in the US dollar’s purchasing power. If investors begin to perceive the US government's fiscal position as unsustainable due to its ever-growing debt, their initial reaction would likely be to seek protection in safer assets.
If this scenario unfolds, Bitcoin investors might have reason to be moderately concerned in the short term, despite a generally bullish long-term outlook.
The US dollar index (DXY) recently plunged to its lowest level since December 2023, losing strength relative to other major global currencies. Some analysts suggest that DXY holds an inverse correlation with Bitcoin’s price, partly because Bitcoin’s appeal lies in its independent payment processing capabilities and fully transparent economic model.
Some analysts have observed an inverse correlation between the US Dollar Strength Index (DXY) and Bitcoin, suggesting that when the dollar weakens, Bitcoin tends to perform well. However, a closer examination of the 50-day correlation between DXY and BTC/USD reveals that this relationship has been weakening in recent months.
After showing a strong inverse correlation in past years, reaching levels below -70% during the 2023 bear market, the correlation has fluctuated between -40% and +40% since early 2024. This variability reduces the statistical strength of the inverse correlation argument.
However, the lack of a clear correlation does not entirely dismiss the possibility of Bitcoin price reclaiming the $72,000 level, especially considering that it has already recovered from the lower ranges of $45,000 to $55,000 where it traded in June.
Similarly, the recent gains in the S&P 500, which might seem counterintuitive, actually reflect a broader investor distrust in holding cash positions, a development that is inherently positive for Bitcoin. This sentiment is driven by the fact that the largest global companies are highly profitable, offering potential dividends or stock buybacks, which can serve as effective hedges, particularly when considering the substantial cash reserves held by tech giants.
Bitcoin derivatives metrics display resilience and potential price upsideTo gauge how professional Bitcoin investors are positioning themselves, it’s essential to analyze BTC futures pricing. Under normal market conditions, monthly contracts should trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium relative to spot markets, compensating for the longer settlement period associated with futures.
This premium is usually referred to as the "basis rate," and it tends to trade in contango, indicating that futures are trading at a premium to the spot price. However, large deviations from this range, especially to the downside, can be concerning.
After reaching neutral levels above 6% in early September, the Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium slid to 6% on Sept. 11, marking its lowest level since October 2023. While this is still within the neutral range, it is bordering on bearish territory.
This movement is in contrast to late July when the premium surpassed 10% as Bitcoin’s price surged above $68,000. At the time, traders were aggressively bidding up futures markets, anticipating a continuation of the H2 2023 bull rally.
To determine if this movement is isolated to futures markets, one should also examine BTC options data. In a neutral market, the imbalance between call (buy) and
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