7 年前，王思聰公開在朋友圈騙吃騙喝，直接說，共享充電寶要是能成，直接吃翔。
這幾年來，各種吃瓜群眾，在線討債。
咱也不好說，這共享充電寶到底算不算成了。
反正充電寶上市第一股的怪獸充電，去年就已經扭虧為盈了，而王思聰的熊貓 TV ，墳頭草已經兩米高了。
但話又說回來，這幾年共享行動電源的名聲，卻也越來越臭了。從漲價到 4 塊，坐實刺客名號，再到被吐槽跑 50里地也還不上。
其實這些都是代理在背後操作，比如你前腳借完，代理僱的幫手後腳就來塞充電寶了；代理還有定價權，是925 一小時，還是4 塊錢一小時，全由他們說了算。
本來以為代理們的騷操作這麼多，日子一定過得美滋滋兒了。
直到前兩天，一個搞共享充電寶的朋友跟我聊天，痛批我說：「賺毛線，賺蠢人費而已。」
他跟我說，之所以沒有大範圍倒閉，是因為這個行業裡很多人都在「慢性死亡」。
聊了幾毛錢後，發現這裡面的水真的很深。
# 一單4 元的收益，被玩成了數字遊戲
他隨便來一個操作，就刷新了我的認知。
照他的說法，業界裡，有一個幾乎是預設的潛規則，那就是－－偷單。顧名思義，就是偷走一筆訂單裡的金額。
而且平台、代理商和商家，這三個成員，很可能組成了一條逐級而下的生態鏈。你偷我，我偷他，平台偷代理，代理偷商家。
舉個簡單的例子，例如我從差電借走了一個充電寶，歸還時支付了 30大洋。
這時，平台和代理拉鉤約定說咱們 9 ：1 分成，我拿 3 元，你拿 27 元。
可是，實際上代理在後台一看，發現只有 18 塊，而這不翼而飛的 10塊錢，神不知不覺地就公司「偷」走了。
一家廠商和我坦言，幾乎所有公司，都有權限可以修改代理商後台。
動動手指，就能讓一部分訂單或時長，從後台憑空消失。
平台可以把 30元的訂單修改成 20元，甚至更少。如此一來，代理的九成收益就縮水到了 18 元，而平台拿 2 元分成，外加 10元的「小費」。
除非代理們整天啥事不干，就蹲點算每個顧客借寶和還寶的時間，不然很難發現貓膩。
業內人和我說，各家可能多少都會偷點，不偷的一定分成不高。 「分成99%的是一定要偷的」、「分成95%的我都估計它得操作一點的。」
根據奧一新聞的採訪，有些極其聰明的公司，還整出了個「白名單”功能。代理商只要花 6000元，就可以進入不被偷單的白名單內。
為了多方求證，這種把合約法當廁紙的離譜行為是否屬實，我也假裝成了加盟代理商，向各家充電寶招商經理周旋套話。
雖然各家都和我說絕對不可能，但他們和我透露的另一個行業秘密，卻反而讓我感覺偷單的可能性上升了幾分。
一般來說，代理商為了說服商家放自己的機器，最起碼都得給商家五成收益。有些為了搶點位，甚至會給到 70%-80%。
正當我說肉痛的時候，招商經理非常大方地就和我分享了一招秘籍：你可以隱藏真實收入。
在某家代理商官方後台，有一個【成本經營】的入口，專門用來偷商家訂單。邏輯和平台偷單代理商很像，可以在後台設定虛擬分成和訂單金額。
雖然商家那裡依然顯示五五分成，但其實分成的錢，早被薅過一遍了。有的商家端連分成比例都看不到，代理商給多少，就是多少。
商家端介面沒有訂單明細很多連分成比例都不顯示
而且，代理商承擔了整條鏈路裡的主要成本，像購機、運維，所以他們偷商家，可能比公司偷他們狠得多。 。
甚至，我在網上找到了專門給代理商開發的偷單系統，還有教學視頻，教代理商們如何在後台設置偷多少單、偷單概率、什麼時候偷。
總共十幾塊錢的單子，很可能就這麼一環偷一環，一層套一層。
說到這裡，我的三觀已經被震裂了。
但朋友拍了拍我，羊毛出在羊身上，很多代理商們整這些東西，其實也是有苦說不出。
例如有的平台，會賣翻新機給代理，從直營淘汰下來的機器，返修後換個新殼子，就被甩給代理商了。個別機子拎起來，甚至還往下滴水。
而且大部分平台的機器，保固時長只有 1 年，之後再出現機子維修問題，就得代理自己掏錢了。
所以很多代理商的最終結局，要么是找下一個“冤大頭”接盤，要么是“慢性死亡”，慢慢等機器一台台壞死，充電寶一個個掉完，商舖一家家倒閉。
朋友說能半死不活地結束，已經是幸運的了。有的人別說賺錢，可能還要往裡面倒貼。
因為還有各種罰款等著你，像某家行動電源平台上，有一個類似信用分的東西，犯了平台禁止的行為，就會扣分（而買機器可以得分）。
扣分的條目很多，例如搶其他代理商的點位，要扣0.5 到 2 分，還要扣流水。
但朋友和我說，好的坑早就被早入場的人佔牢了。尤其現在市場飽和成這樣，一個炒粉宵夜攤旁邊，都擺了四、五台充電櫃。
如果不能搶好點位，他們一天可能一個點的流水就一兩塊錢。
如果你鋌而走險搶肉吃，一旦分數扣完，就會面臨1000到5000不等的罰款。
# 賠本硬剛的價格戰，飆到百萬的買斷費
聽到這，我真想一拍桌子，說，坑，太坑了，老子不干了。
所以，大公司的各種小操作，逼得很多代理商乾脆走上另一條路，也就是自己做貼牌。找行動電源源頭工廠供貨，創個新品牌。這也是為啥我們總能找到各種各樣、見都沒見過的野雞牌子。
受訪者自己，包括周圍很多朋友，最後都是走上貼牌這條路。
但乾了一段時間，他就發現在大品牌面前，他們很難有競爭力，每年都要倒下一大批貼牌小老闆。
你甚至找不到統計他們死亡數量的報告，這個市場份額只有個位數的存在們，就這麼悄無聲息地倒了。
為了活得久一點，小廠商們不得不想各種招。
有人整花活自救，例如借充電寶能抽茅台；有人直接價格戰硬剛，大品牌 4 塊錢一小時，他們就只要 1 塊錢。
但更多的人，只能給商家付一筆錢，讓店鋪只放自己的充電櫃。這筆錢在業界被叫做買斷費。
為了搶奪好的資源，買斷費的價格可以飆到上百萬。
朋友之前接觸的南寧火車站獨家，他是 280萬流標的，最後成交在了三百多萬。
當然了，也有的人乾脆打不過，就退出。放棄了整個國內市場，轉頭掏老外兜裡的鋼鏵。
It makes sense when you think about it. After all, foreigners also have to use mobile phones, so they must also have battery anxiety. People in Southeast Asia, Singapore, and even Europe are already doing it.
But the "gold diggers" who go overseas just by being in contact with friends have already "died" for a long time.
Even if the manufacturers go out, they can only cut the Chinese "leeks". The rate of lost treasures overseas is still high. When you go to places like Southeast Asia, the locals buy them directly for zero yuan. "If you disagree, even your entire cabinet will be moved away."
So the way to go overseas does not seem to be going well at the moment. It’s just that there is never a shortage of people who will end up. When a group of people die, another group will come immediately.
Judging from the above operations, it seems that Sicong may be right. Except for investment managers and power bank factories, no one sings the praises of this industry. Consumers call them assassins, agents call them bad, and small OEMs are waiting to close down.
# “I think everyone will be eaten up by Meituan in the future”
Even the situation in the entire industry has become more anxious after the demise of Meituan.
In 2022, this super giant officially came to an end, and with the leaders all firmly seated, he forcefully opened a hole and sat in.
The reason why Meituan can expand so fast is because it made a condition that merchants cannot refuse.
My friend said: "Meituan's BD came to the store and directly said, if you use my Meituan power bank, I can push the stream for you."
The so-called push means to put the power bank in Shops can increase exposure and sales on Meituan, and hotels can increase their HOS score (evaluation of hotel operation capabilities).
This is a sure shot for merchants. Almost no one would disagree that you can not only make a little money, but also earn free traffic from Meituan.
So, when I shyly said that I wanted to be an agent but didn’t have store resources, the Meituan staff patted their chests and calmly replied: We will contract half of your spots, it will definitely be no problem.
And to show off to me, the merchants came to me themselves.
On the other hand, several other brands either encouraged me and said that I have to rely on myself to make money, or they said that they could bring a team to help me shop, but I had to cover their food and accommodation.
From here, you can feel the existence of Meituan and how many bugs it has.
In front of such a big manufacturer, my friend said pessimistically: "I think everyone will be eaten by Meituan in the future."
Of course, there are still manufacturers that can make a profit by going public, and there are also agents who take advantage of it. Make a fortune.
My friend said that although the buyout fee is high, if you grab a good spot such as a scenic spot or a station, you may be able to gain wealth from now on. There is someone around him who went from being in debt to buying a car and a house within a year by relying on the exclusive spot in the scenic spot.
But the power bank industry is like an iceberg at one pole of the earth. The successful cases we can see are often just the tip of the sea.
Some people successfully climbed to the top of the mountain and made a lot of money.
But more people could not swim back to the sea level even after exhausting their strength, and eventually became the majority under the iceberg. And after they fall, the next batch will come in immediately.
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