The expected halving time of Bitcoin is expected to be April 28, 2024.
The four-year Bitcoin halving is getting closer and closer to us, and the dawn of the bull market is about to appear. In the first halving cycle, Bitcoin rose from two US dollars to more than 1,000 US dollars, an increase of more than 500 times. In the second halving cycle, Bitcoin rose from more than 100 US dollars to 20,000 US dollars, an increase of more than 100 times. In the third halving cycle, Bitcoin rose from US$3,000 to more than US$60,000, an increase of more than 20 times. Now that we have reached the fourth halving week of Bitcoin, how high can Bitcoin rise in this round?
Many bloggers and experts have made predictions about this. Some of them said it would be 100,000 US dollars, some said it would be 200,000 US dollars, and some said it would be 1 million US dollars. However, they all ignore an important question, that is, what are the possibilities? For example, what is the possibility of it rising to 100,000 yuan? 100% or 50%, what is the probability of reaching $1 million? it's 1%. Still 10%. If I predict that Bitcoin will rise to 10 million US dollars in 2025, but the probability is only 0.1%, then this prediction has no meaning. Therefore, our predictions must be made with high certainty, otherwise they will be meaningless. Under the interference of different external conditions, the price of Bitcoin will also be different.
The price of Bitcoin is affected by internal and external factors. The internal factor mainly refers to Bitcoin’s halving cycle, which is a halving event that occurs every four years. External factors include some factors in the traditional world, such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, Bitcoin ETFs, and the overall U.S. election. These factors will all have an impact on the price of Bitcoin.
The halving cycle is an unchangeable rule stipulated in the Bitcoin code. Approximately every 4 years, the Bitcoin mining reward will be halved.
When Bitcoin was first launched in 2009, its mining reward was 50 BTC per block.
The first halving was in 2012, to 25;
The second halving was in 2016, to 12.5;
The third halving in 2020 Half, it becomes 6.25;
By 2024, Bitcoin will be halved again.
As we all know, mining rewards are the main source of income for Bitcoin miners. If Bitcoin output is halved, then assuming that the cost remains unchanged, if the miners want to maintain the original income unchanged, The selling price of Bitcoin must be doubled. Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand in the entire market, assuming that demand remains unchanged and the supply is reduced by half, the price will inevitably double.
The demand for Bitcoin here is actually the consensus of Bitcoin, and this consensus has been increasing. In other words, the demand for Bitcoin has been increasing. So, in general, from the most conservative scenario, Bitcoin will at least double in 2025, which is to reach 40,000 US dollars. This is a lower limit, and the probability of reaching this price is almost 100%. On the other hand, within the industry, in addition to changes in supply and demand, there is also speculation about the concept of halving. Of course, this hype will continue to decrease as Bitcoin’s market share decreases.
In the first halving cycle, Bitcoin rose more than 500 times,
The second time it rose more than 100 times, almost one-fifth of the first time.
The third increase was more than 20 times, which was one-fifth of the second time. Therefore, according to the decreasing trend of the increase, the halved increase this time was one-fifth of 20 times. , that is, 4 times, and the corresponding price is 80,000 US dollars.
Generally speaking, the cycle and hype within the industry can allow Bitcoin to reach a price of US$40,000 to US$80,000 in 2025.
Next, let’s look at external factors.
First of all, the biggest external factor is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. Cutting interest rates will bring a large amount of funds to the market, and part of these funds will flow into the crypto market, thereby pushing up the price of Bitcoin. So, the most critical question is, when will interest rates be cut?
According to industry analysis, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates around mid-2024. Their analysis is based on inflation data and unemployment rates. We will not go into details here. What I’m talking about here is another related external factor, the US presidential election. As we all know, the U.S. presidential election happens every four years, and the Bitcoin halving cycle also happens every four years. This 4-year halving is likely to be deliberately designed by Satoshi Nakamoto. Moreover, not only will the price be halved in four years, the year of the halving will also be the year of the US presidential election.
The year is 2024, Bitcoin will be halved in April, and the presidential election will be held in November. So, what does the presidential election have to do with interest rate cuts? The logic is that stimulating the economy by releasing water is an important means for politicians to win voters. However, the negative consequence of releasing water is inflation. Therefore, when inflation is high and people feel that prices are too high, politicians will raise interest rates in order to stabilize public sentiment. Raising interest rates will control inflation, but it will also bring about new problems, that is, the stock market and housing market have fallen, causing people to suffer losses in their investments.
In the past two years, under the rule of BD, interest rates have been raised. Many people's investments have been damaged and many people have lost their jobs. These people will vent their grievances on the president, so the next president's campaign slogan must be to lower interest rates. Rounds of quantitative easing have allowed the economy to continue to maintain false prosperity and pass the consequences of inflation to the next president. Therefore, from these two perspectives, an interest rate cut in 2024 or 2025 is a high probability.
In addition, there is another most important external factor that is the possibility of the Bitcoin ETF being passed. Bitcoin ETFs refer to exchange-traded funds that track the price of Bitcoin. If you buy a Bitcoin ETF, you are indirectly buying Bitcoin. Although what you buy is a fund and does not hold real Bitcoin, their returns are exactly the same.
Bitcoin ETF has two major advantages. The first is that for ordinary retail investors, they do not need to learn complicated and difficult technical operations such as cold wallets and mnemonic phrases. They only need to buy stocks like buying stocks. The easy way to invest in Bitcoin broadens its audience. Second, for those large traditional funds that hold a lot of money, they can use part of the money to invest in Bitcoin in full compliance, thus increasing the funds on the market.
For them, even a small amount of money will have a big impact on the Bitcoin market. At the same time, Bitcoin ETFs will also have a great impact on market sentiment. People will compare Bitcoin ETFs with the gold ETFs of the year. After the gold ETF was approved that year, the gold market experienced a super bull market.
Now, Bitcoin is called digital gold and will play the role of gold in the future metaverse virtual world. Therefore, it is entirely possible for it to have another bull market similar to gold.
So is it possible for the Bitcoin ETF to pass?
In 2021, the Bitcoin futures ETF has been approved, and now everyone is waiting for the approval of its spot ETF. Now, Wall Street heavyweight institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity have begun to apply for Bitcoin spot ETFs. Although they have been rejected by the SEC, this appeal has been supported by the court. At the same time, more and more large Wall Street institutions have joined the application process. Therefore, at present, it is only a matter of time before the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved.
To summarize, judging from the above external factors, the possibility of Bitcoin rising sharply is very high, and Bitcoin already has the possibility of starting a bull market.
So, driven by a combination of internal and external factors, how much will Bitcoin be worth in 2025? Here we refer to the predictions of the founder of ARK, known as the female version of Warren Buffett, for our estimation. Sister Mu predicted that Bitcoin will reach 1 million US dollars in 2030. This time point is probably the next round of bull market. We work backwards and convert according to the proportion. The highest price of Bitcoin in the bull market in 2025 should be 280,000 US dollars.
Looking at it comprehensively, under the influence of internal factors, Bitcoin can conservatively reach US$40,000 to US$80,000. If these and external factors are added, it may reach US$280,000. I believe that 40,000 to 280,000 is a relatively objective price range prediction. That is to say, if there is no interest rate increase (cut) and no ETF passes, and none of these happen, then the worst-case scenario, Bitcoin It should reach 40,000 US dollars, and it cannot be lower. There is a high probability that it will return to the previous high of more than 60,000 US dollars. If you are more optimistic, it will be 80,000 US dollars. If the external environment improves, it may be possible to challenge US$280,000. However, you said it will reach 500,000 US dollars or 1 million US dollars. I think it is impossible. Such a super bull market will have to reach the bull market in 2029/2030, because at that time, the Kangbo cycle The depression period will end and a new Kang wave cycle will begin. At that time, the conditions for a bull market will truly be determined.
The last question is, in which month will the big bull market in 2025 occur? According to previous situations, this usually occurs at the end of the year, but the bull market in 2021 will be a double top. Therefore, it is difficult to predict the specific month, but the high probability may be in the second half of the year. In the months when a top may appear, we must pay close attention and escape from the top at the appropriate time. Then, we use our profits to buy the bottom of the next bear market, and so on, constantly increasing our wealth.
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