Calm down and talk about what I have been thinking about recently - 4 possibilities to kill Bitcoin:
1. Black boxing of assets: Last night in Space, I talked about the possible long-term negative impact of ETFs: that is, when the market value of its holdings exceeds 30%, plus 10% of the CEX share , the 10% lost and the "coining" of derivatives, black box currency holdings accounted for more than 50%, actually breaking down the decentralization and liquidity of the Bitcoin asset side
In fact, the market value of Bitcoin spot futures ETF has reached US$33 billion, accounting for 3.5% of the circulation ratio. In the next two cycles, the market value may account for more than 20%.
2. Nationalization of the mining end:Miners no longer enjoy a one-year return on capital and an annualized income of more than 30% in four years, but gradually switch to the average rate of return of the mainstream currency market, which is 5 %, national teams, various pension funds, and university foundations will become the mainstream of mining. Likewise, they would seriously threaten Bitcoin’s decentralization
3. New Cold War Entity Sanctions:With the extreme mainstreaming of Bitcoin, Bitcoin will become a weapon in the game between China, the United States and other major powers. Entity list sanctions targeting specific wallet addresses will become increasingly common on both the mining side and the asset side. This will greatly challenge the core value of Bitcoin’s super-sovereign asset
4. Extreme deflation brings self-freezing:Bitcoin Constant was originally used by Satoshi Nakamoto to fight against the central bank’s over-issuance of currency, but when its consensus enters the mainstream world, people will learn a basic common sense , any Bitcoin spent today will be worth more tomorrow. This makes the hold sentiment get heavier and heavier, until it reaches extreme "freeze" and no one uses Bitcoin
Solution:What makes you successful may also destroy you. The genius design of Satoshi Nakamoto is the real threat to Bitcoin. How to break the situation? Of course, you can ignore it. These things will most likely happen after Bitcoin’s market value surpasses gold (the price is above $700,000)
Ultimately, the decentralization of Bitcoin will bring about free competition beyond countries and entities, thus generating natural gaming power. This asymmetry will persist in the Bitcoin world against actual control by one country or entity.
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