Why didn't Bitcoin surge after the halving?

The reasons why Bitcoin does not surge after halving include: market cycle, regulatory uncertainty, insufficient institutional investment, competitors, and macroeconomic factors. While halving reduces supply, it is not a guarantee of increased demand, and the market tends to price halving events in advance. Still, Bitcoin is seen as an asset with long-term growth potential, and halvings will continue to reduce supply over time, potentially driving prices higher.

Why can’t Bitcoin’s halving trigger a surge?

Bitcoin halving is a pre-planned periodic event that reduces the amount of rewards generated by Bitcoin in half. In theory, lower supply would push up demand and prices, causing Bitcoin prices to rise. However, after the latest halving, Bitcoin did not experience the expected surge.

Influencing factors:

• Market cycle: The price of Bitcoin is affected by the market cycle, in which bull and bear markets alternate. Halvings usually occur late in a bull market when prices are already at highs, so the impact of the halving may be limited.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: The attitude of global regulators towards cryptocurrencies remains uncertain, which can bring instability to the market and hinder price increases.
• Insufficient institutional investment: Although some institutional investors have entered the Bitcoin market, their overall impact is still limited. Institutional investors often take longer to conduct due diligence and make investment decisions.
• Competitors: Bitcoin faces competition from other cryptocurrencies and assets that offer different features and risk-reward ratios.
• Macroeconomic factors: Global economic events, such as wars, inflation, and interest rate changes, can also affect Bitcoin prices.

The impact of halving is limited:

The impact of halving is often offset by the above factors. While halving can reduce supply, it does not guarantee an increase in demand. In addition, the market tends to digest halving events in advance, causing its impact on prices to be partially reflected before the halving.

Long-Term Outlook:

Although the recent halving failed to spark a major rally, Bitcoin is still viewed as an asset with long-term growth potential. Halvings will continue to reduce supply over time, which could eventually push prices higher if other factors are favorable. However, it is important to remember that the Bitcoin market is inherently volatile and unpredictable.

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