CryptoQuant: The impact of Bitcoin halving weakens! The growth of investors has become the main driving force for the rise of BTC

This site (120bTC.coM): With the Bitcoin halving coming next Saturday (20th), the market is all looking forward to the rapid growth of Bitcoin prices under the halving market. However, the encryption analysis agency CryptoQuant recently A research report points out that the impact of the supply reduction caused by the halving on the price of Bitcoin may not be as significant as most investors expect.

There was already a supply shortage before the halving

CryptoQuant’s analysis pointed out that the impact of the halving on the Bitcoin market is gradually weakening. They pointed out that between 2021 and 2023, the market has already seen several situations where demand from long-term holders exceeds supply, but the current gap between supply and demand is wider than ever, meaning that the market is already in supply before the halving. shortage status. Therefore, even if the supply is further reduced after the halving, the upward pressure on the price of Bitcoin may not be as significant as in the past.

In addition, it can be observed from the chart below that the proportion of new monthly Bitcoin issuance continues to decline, currently falling below 4% of the total available supply, compared with the previous Bitcoin halving , the proportion is obviously smaller. Before the first, second and third halvings, issuance accounted for 69%, 27% and 10% of the total available supply respectively. This is further evidence of the strong market demand for Bitcoin, with investors continuing to buy or holders generally unwilling to sell their Bitcoins.

Bitcoin’s monthly issuance falls below 4% of total available supply

CryptoQuant: Demand growth is the main driver of price increases after halving Li

CryptoQuant further reveals from the analysis of the chart below that the demand for giant whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins has reached an all-time high, with their holdings increasing by 11% from last month, and long-term holdings Investors are adding as many as 200,000 Bitcoins to their balances every month, which is about seven times the monthly new issuance of Bitcoin (28,000 Bitcoins).

In past cycles, the surge in positions from giant whales (purple area in the figure below) was an important factor driving the rise in Bitcoin prices. Therefore, CryptoQuant believes that the growth in demand seems to be the main driver of the price increase after the halving.

This emphasizes a key point, since price is determined by supply and demand. Although the halving directly brings about the halving of the supply, compared to its potential boost to the price of Bitcoin, CryptoQuant pays more attention to demand growth as the key driver of the rise in Bitcoin prices.

When the Bitcoin holdings in the whale’s purple area surge, the Bitcoin price can be seen to rise significantly

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