Bitcoin on Track for Record Sideways Action, With Eyes on November Elections as Bullish Catalyst

Bitcoin's boring price action, characterized by continued accumulation by small investors, is being attributed to several reasons. including the U.S. election uncertainty and renewed uptick in the U.S. Treasury yields.

Bitcoin’s boring price action, characterized by continued accumulation by small investors, is being attributed to several reasons, including the U.S. election uncertainty and a renewed uptick in the U.S. Treasury yields.

“The higher bond yield move and SPX at record highs are helping to push USD higher, but it is coming at the expense of crypto, where BTC is back to hovering at around the 60k level again,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message on Friday.

“Finally, defunct Mt. Gox's fresh announcement that it has extended its repayment deadline by a year to Oct 2025 might help to alleviate some supply pressures in the short-run, but it appears that BTC will be in a holding pattern here heading into the final weeks of the election,” Fan added.

Republican candidate Donald Trump is viewed as crypto friendly. He’s been linked to a new decentralized finance project called World Liberty Finance, while the Democratic party is considered less friendly toward the market. A Republican victory is widely expected to fuel a bigger Bitcoin move.

Markets often enter a sideways phase where traders and investors reassess their positions, leading to a balance between buying and selling pressures.

Bitcoin would need to break and remain above the $69,000 level to be considered a bullish breakout above the current range, according to CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole. A breakout would mean a resumption of the broader uptrend from October 2023 lows and shift focus to $100,000, a level that options traders are anticipating.

Sideways movement can be interpreted as periods of accumulation (where investors slowly buy up supply without moving the price much) or distribution (where they sell off their holdings in a similar controlled manner). This typically leads to a period of high volatility.

Bitcoin is coming out of a seasonally bearish period of August and Septermber, where investors do not make big moves, to a historically bullish October. A CoinDesk analysis shows most gains in October arise in the second half of the month – usually after October 16.

But market strains remain. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) earlier this week charged multiple market-making and trading firms on consecutive days, sparking speculation on whether the crypto market could face more heat in the weeks before the November elections.

(Omkar Godbole contributed insights.)

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