Bitcoin Historical Volatility Nears Year-to-Date High as BTC Price Range Tightens

Bitcoin’s volatility has passed the levels it reached during its all-time high in March and continues to rise, and traders think this could be the catalyst

As Bitcoin’s volatility continues to rise, traders are watching to see if it will finally serve as the catalyst BTC needs to break out of its consolidation phase.

To trigger the rally, BTC must first hold above $61,000 and successfully retest the $62,000 level, which it hasn’t hit since Aug. 9.

“Bitcoin after a big slump in volatility levels, it’s now ramping back up and getting close to levels we saw earlier this year at the all-time highs,” pseudonymous crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote in an Aug. 21 X post.

“It's what's eventually needed to put an end to this massive consolidation in one way or another,” he added.

Bitcoin Historical Volatility Chart. Source: TradingView Historical Vol (CoinGlass)

On Aug. 21, the Bitcoin Historical Volatility chart — a tool used to display the volatility of Bitcoin over a period of time — hit 3.42%, surpassing the 3.00% recorded on March 13, when Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $73,679, according to CoinGlass data.

Just under two weeks later, on March 26, Bitcoin’s volatility hit its highest point for 2024, at 4.28%.

While volatility isn't a bullish signal by itself, it does indicate that Bitcoin's price could see significant movement outside of its current price range. Traders warn that it could also cause the price to go the other way.

“Based on 10 years of price history there is a high chance that September will print cycle lows,” another pseudonymous crypto trader, TheoTrader, added.

Bitcoin is down 10.99% over the past 30 days. Source: CoinMarketCap

Since the April 20 Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin prices have been consolidating in a wide range that extends from $49,842 to $72,000.

Increased volatility can benefit the market by attracting greater trader interest in speculating on Bitcoin’s next move and potentially more opportunities for traders to profit from price swings.

Related: Bitcoin bull run’s ‘most important chart’ hits new $94T all-time high

Future traders, on the other hand, appear to be bullish on Bitcoin's price moving upward.

The put-to-call volume ratio, which measures the demand for sell versus buy options, is at 66.18% calls and 33.82% puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.51.

At the time of publication, BTC is trading at $60,875 after attempting to break through $62,000, but it fell short at $61,552, according to CoinMarketCap.

Crypto trader Matthew Hyland noted in an Aug. 22 X post that Bitcoin is “testing the neckline,” a technical trading pattern used to confirm support levels by drawing a line through the high points on Bitcoin's price within a certain period.

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