Polymarket Bettors Give Mpox a 20% Chance of Becoming a Pandemic

Years after the Covid-19 pandemic, the media has turned its attention to the latest Mpox outbreak, with one editorial by the Associated Press (AP) questioning whether it could be declared a pandemic in the headline.

The World Health Organization (WHO) recently declared the Mpox outbreak, also known as monkeypox, a public health emergency of international concern. Following this announcement, prediction markets have begun speculating on the potential for Mpox to be categorized as a pandemic in 2024.

According to an editorial published by the Associated Press (AP), scientists believe that the risk of Mpox spreading to the general population in countries without ongoing outbreaks is considered low. However, the AP also notes that Mpox is spreading slowly, unlike the rapid transmission of the coronavirus.

Several bets have been placed on Polymarket, a blockchain-powered prediction market platform, regarding the Mpox outbreak. One bet, with $153,019 wagered, questions whether there will be a confirmed case of Mpox in the United States by the end of August, with odds sitting at 50%. Another bet, totaling $46,600, estimates a 77% chance that Mpox will be detected in the U.S. by September. One wager speculates on whether there will be 100 confirmed cases in the U.S. before October, with current odds at 28%. Meanwhile, there’s a 72% chance that more than 10 U.S. citizens will contract monkeypox, according to Polymarket predictions.

One popular bet on this topic revolves around whether the WHO will declare Mpox a pandemic, like they did with Covid-19 on March 11, 2020. This wager is valued at $84,700, with the odds of Mpox reaching pandemic status in 2024 at 20%, based on the bets as of Aug. 17.

What do you think about the prediction market bets on the Mpox outbreak becoming a pandemic? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.

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