Analyst Interpretation: Tight supply triggers divergence between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks

在数字货币市场，比特币（BTC）近期的市场行为与美国股市的看涨趋势形成了显著分歧。尽管比特币试图突破63,000美元的价格关口，但当前仍遭遇了重重阻力。


据Bitfinex与媒体的一份报告，2024年上半年，比特币价格一度攀升至73,000美元的历史新高，市场情绪普遍乐观。然而，随着年中的到来，这种热情开始降温，6月份比特币面临多重不利因素，导致价格较3月份的高点下跌了近15%。


据称，现行政策对比特币市场产生了显著影响，降低了其波动性，阻碍了价格的进一步上涨。同时，Santiment的数据显示，比特币的周波动率从3月中旬的0.1306急剧下降至6月份的年度最低值0.0198。


**7 月 2 日 BTC 价格和波动率** | 来源：Santiment

Bitfinex analysts noted:

• Long-term holders paused selling in early May, then restarted.
• Resumption of selling activity and oversupply in the market is putting pressure on Bitcoin price.

On-chain indicators show:

• Long-term holders are choosing to take profits when the current Bitcoin price is below the all-time high ($69,000).
• The high profit cash-out rate indicates that Bitcoin may face a risk of falling in the short term.
• Mt. Gox A potential sell-off by bondholders and the German government is exacerbating the oversupply.

Macroeconomic environment:

• The personal consumption expenditure index remains stable, and the market expects a possible interest rate cut in September.
• Weak U.S. third-quarter GDP and declining consumer confidence did not boost Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Decoupled from Stock Market Movements:

• In June, Bitcoin fell more than 8%, while the S&P 500 rose 3.5%.
• Supply issues, speculative buying and news-induced panic selling have impacted Bitcoin trends.

July Outlook:

• The outlook is generally positive, but Bitcoin is down 0.18% to $62,675 at the time of writing.
• Analysts expect that the market is still expected to regain its vitality.

Conclusion:

• The digital currency market is full of uncertainties, and investors should comprehensively consider policy, economic and emotional factors.
• Bitcoin and the blockchain technology behind it are expected to drive financial innovation.
• Investors need to pay close attention to market developments, grasp trends and maintain sensitivity to risks.

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