Galaxy: Mt.Gox's BTC selling pressure may be less than expected! Bitcoin stands back at $60,000

This site (120bTC.coM): Mt.Gox, once the world’s largest Bitcoin exchange, was attacked by hackers in 2014 and 850,000 Bitcoins were stolen. Now after 10 years of bankruptcy litigation, After several delays, compensation is finally underway. It is expected that Mt. Gox will pay 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH to creditors before October this year.

Mt.Gox expects to start repayments in July

At the end of April, it was reported that many creditors posted on Reddit that they had received part of the cash repayments and predicted that repayments in cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin were imminent. . Just yesterday (24th), Mt.Gox officially issued an announcement stating that it expects to start repaying Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to customers in July:

The Reorganization Trustee has prepared to repay customers in accordance with the reorganization Repayments in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash are planned. Now these preparations are in place...

The announcement added that the confirmation and exchange of required information has been completed with the relevant exchanges to ensure the security and compliance of repayments:

We spent some time to ensure that Creditors repay debts safely and reliably, including technical measures for safe repayments, compliance with each country's financial regulations, and discussions with cryptocurrency exchanges on repayment arrangements. Will

make Bitcoin fall sharply?

After the Mt. Gox announcement yesterday, Bitcoin fell from US$62,400 to US$60,588 in just 15 minutes, and continued to fall to the lowest pin of US$58,300 before rebounding. At the time of writing, it was trading at US$60,292. Market investors are discussing whether this will bring more selling pressure to the sluggish Bitcoin? After all, although the creditors lost these cryptocurrencies about 10 years ago and were unable to get 100% of the assets back (coin-based), the currency prices have soared today, and now that they have finally recovered these assets, they may choose to sell them. causing BTC to fall.

Analyst: The selling pressure will be smaller than expected

In response, Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn posted a comment on the X platform last night. He believes that the eventual selling pressure on Bitcoin triggered by Mt. Gox will be smaller than expected. He explained that since nearly 75% of creditors choose Earlypayout (subject to accepting a 10% impairment), there will currently only be about 95,000 Bitcoins used to pay compensation early (the remaining BTC will take longer to pay out) ):

About 20,000 tokens belong to the claim fund
10,000 tokens belong to BitcoinicaBK
There are still about 65,000 tokens owed to individual creditors

And he expects that individual creditors will be more insistent than the market expects. With Bitcoin:

Creditors are mainly long-term Bitcoin holders. They are technology-savvy early adopters. Individual creditors have rejected attractive offers from claims funds over the years, suggesting they want their Bitcoin back rather than dollar-denominated compensation. The capital gains tax implications of a sale can be significant. Even though only 15% of physical claims have been recovered as prices have increased, claim holders have gained 140x (in USD) on the Bitcoin they recovered since the bankruptcy.

So in summary, he believes that the selling pressure on Bitcoin will not be greater than investors imagined. But BCH may have a more serious decline due to its small liquidity.

Finally, he added that all Bitcoins will be distributed to creditors’ exchange accounts at Kraken, Bitstamp or BitGo. Once the Bitcoins are transferred to these platforms, I would expect it to take 24 to 72 hours for the Bitcoins to appear in user accounts. Investors can observe the flow of Mt. Gox’s 140,000 Bitcoins by observing Arkham’s analytical data.

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