An in-depth analysis of 5 opportunities in the DePIN track from bottom to top

DePIN 5 opportunities from the bottom up on the track! We’ve had DeFi Summer, NFTs, and Metaverse mania. Will the next craze turn to DePIN? Between 2020 and 2021, DeFi’s market capitalization increased nearly 100 times, from a peak of $1.75 billion to $172.2 billion. Assuming that in this bull market, the total market value of DeFi increases 10 times, and the total market value of DePIN reaches 50% of DeFi, then the total market value of DePIN will reach US$500 billion, with at least 20 times of room for growth. According to Messari’s estimate, DePIN’s market value will reach US$3.5 trillion in 2028, with DePIN’s potential growth space being 120 times higher.

Today, the editor of this site will share with you 5 opportunities from bottom to top in the DePIN track. The DePIN track is a track full of opportunities, but there are many projects, which project is the fastest growing. What about? Let’s take a look below!

What is DePIN

DePIN stands for decentralized physical infrastructure network. It encourages users to share personal resources through token incentives to build Infrastructure network, including storage space, communication traffic, cloud computing, energy and other fields.

To put it simply, DePIN uses a form of crowdsourcing to distribute the infrastructure originally provided by centralized companies to many users around the world.

According to data from CoinGecko, the current market value of the DePIN field has reached 5.2 billion U.S. dollars, exceeding the 5 billion U.S. dollars in the oracle field, and is showing a continuous upward trend. Whether it is Arweave and Filecoin that first emerged, or Helium that took off in the last bull market, as well as the recently high-profile Render Network, etc., they all belong to this field.

Some readers may be curious. These projects have been around before, and Helium also attracted a lot of attention in the last bull market, but why has DePIN begun to attract people's attention and enthusiasm recently?

The reasons can be roughly summarized into three aspects:

The infrastructure has been much improved than a few years ago, which paved the way for and empowered the depin track;

on the other hand At the end of 2022, Messari first proposed the new concept of DePIN, believing it to be "one of the most important areas for crypto investment in the next ten years." The new definition and expectations have also added a new narrative heat to this track;

In addition, people once pinned the new narrative of web3's breaking out of the circle on social and games, but with the advent of the bear market, people also began to explore more possibilities in other directions, which are also closely linked to web2 users. The DePIN track has naturally gradually become an important choice for web3 builders.

So is the DePIN track old wine in new bottles, or is it a new opportunity for Web3 to break out of the circle? This article will give you an in-depth analysis of DePIN from five angles: why DePIN is needed, DePIN’s token economic model, and the current status of the industry , representative projects, advantage analysis, as well as limitations and challenges.

Part 01 What and Why DePIN

Using the crypto-economy to deploy real-world physical infrastructure has a long history. Some typical projects were established as far back as 2013. They range from communications, storage, computing Very valuable exploration has been carried out in other fields. Today, this model has expanded to more fields, such as AI, energy, data collection, etc., and the ecology has also ushered in a period of prosperity.

DePIN represents a paradigm of decentralized applications: node economy, miner model, transforming the real world.

• Compared with centralized infrastructure, DePIN has a higher unit economic effect. DePIN's smart contracts, equipment standardization, and economic model replace CePIN hardware deployment, operation, and management, which will bring about 75%-90% cost savings.
• Token economy is the key to the expansion of the node network and the formation of network effects. When the price of tokens rises, economic incentives cause the node scale to grow rapidly.
• If Web2.0 allows humans to interact with the Internet through various input devices, Web3.0 allows physical hardware to interact with the blockchain through DePIN.

We have experienced DeFi Summer, NFT and Metaverse mania. Will the next craze turn to DePIN? Between 2020 and 2021, DeFi’s market capitalization increased nearly 100 times, from a peak of $1.75 billion to $172.2 billion. Assuming that in this bull market, the total market value of DeFi increases 10 times, and the total market value of DePIN reaches 50% of DeFi, then the total market value of DePIN will reach US$500 billion, with at least 20 times of room for growth. According to Messari’s estimate, DePIN’s market value will reach US$3.5 trillion in 2028, with DePIN’s potential growth space being 120 times higher.

We believe that the DePIN architecture has the following 5 opportunities from bottom to top:

1. DePIN blockchain underlying facilities. The underlying infrastructure of the DePIN blockchain serves as the settlement layer for DePIN applications, providing support for transactions and the operation of the token economic model.

2.DePIN middleware. DePIN middleware is a middleware layer that connects the underlying infrastructure and upper-layer applications, providing standardized interfaces and tools. This layer is the key hub of the DePIN ecosystem.

3.DePIN upper-layer application. DePIN upper-layer applications are various applications built based on the DePIN infrastructure and middleware layer to provide users with actual services and value. This is the front-end and implementation scenario of the DePIN ecosystem.

4. Derivative opportunities: edge AI. Edge AI is an important extension of the DePIN ecosystem, using the DePIN network to deploy edge computing and AI applications to process data locally and provide intelligent services.

5. Derivative opportunities: RWA. Combine DePIN with Real World Assets (RWA) to create new financial products and services.

Part 02 Opportunities for DePIN’s underlying facilities

L1/L2 that may benefit from the DePIN ecosystem in the future

· DePIN is Solana OPOS (Only Possible On Solana) concept, benefiting from this positioning, Solana fought back from the gloom of FTX, and its market value increased from a minimum of US$3.6 billion to US$89.8 billion, an increase of 25 times. DePIN will continue to be an important narrative for Solana going forward. The choice of head projects often represents a trend, and Helium’s migration of the mainnet to Solana has a clear demonstration effect. According to this logic, Polygon and Arbitrum are both underlying chains that may benefit from the growth of DePIN in the future.

· Proprietary chains that provide DePIN modular infrastructure will benefit from the growth of the ecosystem and leading applications, such as IoTeX and Peaq.

· The ecology of a public chain that is closely integrated with AI concepts will inevitably extend to the upstream DePIN sector. For example, Near develops a public chain narrative around AI, and Aptos cooperates with Microsoft to try to combine AI with Web3 products.

Universal middleware is the crown jewel of DePIN

Seamlessly connecting physical infrastructure with blockchain requires powerful middleware. At present, trusted hardware is mainly controlled through official authorization, and anti-cheating is achieved through governance and miner management tools.

Difficulties in the development of general-purpose middleware:

• The technology is relatively difficult. It is difficult to prevent cheating and upload trusted data to the chain with technology alone.
• The overall DePIN market scale is limited, resulting in limited middleware market space.

Once the universal middleware breaks through, it will greatly lower the threshold for DePIN application and promote ecological prosperity, and middleware will be the direct beneficiary.

DePIN Miner Service Layer: Miners’ Guild Without Borders, People’s Network

The miner service layer is located at the bottom of the DePIN ecosystem and is essential for DePIN applications The components are mainly divided into two categories: hardware production and node operation and maintenance:

• Hardware manufacturers are responsible for providing the physical equipment required to build the network, such as servers, storage and network equipment. By innovating and improving products to meet specific needs, hardware manufacturers can open up new markets and are direct beneficiaries of the growth of the DePIN ecosystem. Therefore, powerful hardware manufacturers will participate in the DePIN ecosystem in various forms, including hardware support and financial support. Various reasons make hardware manufacturers an important driving force in the development of DePIN.
• The hardware operation and maintenance project helps nodes deploy and operate maintenance, and charges a certain service fee. This model will perform better in the later stages of the bull market. Under the DePIN flywheel effect, token prices will rise in the late bull market, and the node return cycle will be very fast. Ordinary users can quickly start making profits by paying service fees.

Potential opportunities:

1. Hardware manufacturers with global distribution and rapid production of trusted devices.

2. The permissionless DePIN node deployment platform will play a role similar to that of a chain game guild.

3. Expect better DePIN tool layer projects to emerge and capture value. The device data aggregation platform is a high-quality user portal. At present, DePIN data is still not transparent enough, and some key data to judge the development of the project are difficult to obtain, such as the number of equipment nodes, comparison of miner returns, number of demand-side users and income, which makes decision-making difficult and there are vacant opportunities in the DePIN tool layer.

Part 03 DePIN Application Value Evaluation Logic: Find the Unchanging Law

DePIN Protocol is a two-sided market, with the supply side providing services and the demand side contributing revenue. , so value assessment should be conducted from both supply and demand ends.

Demand-side value judgment

Compared with dividing by concept, industry and supply side, we believe that the judgment of the demand market is more important, so we especially Pay attention to projects targeting the C-side market.

Two judgments on the demand side:

• 面向 C 端的应用，高利润场景更多，想象空间更大。
• 面向 AI 数据需求的应用，还处于非常早期。

需求端终局大胆猜测：Web3 手机和新型共享经济

1、加密手机将是突破 C 端市场的关键

通过定制化手机，手机可以内置 DePIN 应用，并通过空投激励，实现快速增长。面向 C 端往往需要通过补贴获取市场。以 Helium Mobile 为例，收入为用户支付的 20 美元套餐。由于需要向 T-mobile 支付合作费用，当 70-80% 下载服务由 Helium 自身网络提供时，刚好到盈利点（Messari，截至 2023 年 12 月迈阿密的比例是 55%），一旦超过盈利点，项目将实现自造血，DePIN 飞轮将运转的更好。

2、打造 Web3 版本的共享经济网络

依托 Web3 移动端应用，通过有效代币激励，未来可实现大规模的共享经济/社交网络。

供给端价值判断

过去二十年里，硬件设备价格急剧下降，使个人也能够充当基础设施服务提供商。

我们对供给市场的判断标准：

• 产品是否容易标准化？产品越标准化则越容易金融化，譬如算力根据时长定价，配置不同价格不同。
• 设备成本是否够低？成本越低，潜在供给规模越大，且越去中心化。

供给端终局：关注可以快速规模化和标准化的项目

• 6 个赛道的节点设备成本大多为中等（$300-$1000），可以达到消费级。其中算力中高端 GPU（A100、H100）较昂贵，而 AI 需要专业性我们也将其定义为高成本，能源中部分设备超过 $1000。
• 而在产品标准化方面，普遍面临标准化低的问题，Wireless 中带宽属于标准化产品，其他细分领域如 5G、WiFi 均为非标产品。

Part04 DePIN 应用层潜力分析

根据 Messari 统计，到 2023 年，DePIN 应用已经有超过 650 个项目，涵盖六个子赛道：计算、AI、无线网络、传感器、能源和服务。

01 计算是 DePIN 发展最成熟的板块

计算（算力+存储）是 TAM 最大的赛道，2023 年企业云服务收入达到 2700 亿美元（Synery Research）。

• 需求端：计算板块需求来自中小企业以及个人，其中受益于 AI 的增长，GPU 需求最旺盛。
• 供给端：Akash 拥有包括 CPU、GPU 和存储在内的多样化硬件网络，Render 有大量的 GPU。io.net 从自己的网络以及其他平台获取了大量的 GPU。

计算板块 2 个趋势判断：

1、GPU 算力市场是目前最有想象空间的细分领域，我们认为该领域存在更多二级市场机会，并且未来会走向头部集中和横向整合。

GPU 算力平台增长逻辑：

1、全球范围的 GPU 短缺，需求飞涨

2、与 AI 概念同频共振

3、地缘冲突下的世界算力货币

去中心化 GPU 平台发展趋势是通过 Token 激励吸引算力头部项目，以及资源横向整合。目前面临需求和供给匹配失效的风险，需要需求增长或者模式创新支撑当前市值。未来去中心化 GPU 平台增长点，供给端在于绕开 B 端，向 C 端算力拓展，构建边缘计算网络，需求端在于和下游需求端紧密结合或者自建应用场景。

2、存储板块将走向存算一体，成为一种独特的 Layer1。

After superimposed calculations, some large-scale storage DePINs will become unique Layer1 - a blockchain that can provide decentralized storage and computing capabilities. Compared with the current blockchain, this unique Layer1 can significantly reduce on-chain storage and computing costs. Some applications that require large-scale storage and complex logic can be implemented here, such as content platforms, social networking, games, etc.

02 DePIN AI implements an open AI model platform, AI data, and AI Agent through a decentralized approach

Bittensor is a typical model of DePIN AI. Created a decentralized machine learning (ML) network to inspire the development and decentralization of artificial intelligence. Bittensor has a first-mover advantage in the Web3 AI large model track and is a leading project in this field. Its model iteration and ecological construction are developing steadily. It is expected that Bittensor is expected to reach a higher level driven by the explosion of AI narrative or high-quality subnets.

#ORA has more powerful scalability than Bittensor. Bittensor's subnet currently has huge application costs and requires a considerable amount of TAO tokens to be pledged. However, ORA that implements on-chain AI oracles will have more ecosystems (AI Agent / AIGC NFT / AI-powered Protocol and other projects ) blooms on its on-chain AI technology.

03 Sensors: The new sector with the most growth potential and driven by AI

Currently there are few sensor projects, especially data-focused projects. It means more primary market opportunities.

Sensor sector value analysis:

Is the market space big enough? The size of the downstream demand market determines the project ceiling.

Is the data value high enough? The uniqueness of data and application scenarios determine the value of sensor-based DePIN applications.

The growth logic of the sensor sector:

1. New sector driven by AI

2. Decentralization is needed from the underlying logic

3. Autonomous The mining machine supply chain provides a richer source of funds and a longer profit cycle.

04 Wireless network: fierce competition and high operational difficulty

DePIN uses decentralized base stations, routers and other physical Equipment, providing information transmission services for the Internet of Things and end users. The main difficulty is that the demand is dispersed and it is difficult for a decentralized network to meet the demand. It is necessary to use the network power of traditional operators to expand the market. For example, DePIN can supplement traditional operators or provide them with data. Therefore, the core competitiveness in the field of wireless communications lies in cooperation with traditional operators. (Helium Mobile leveraged the power of T-mobile during the cold start phase of the market).

05 Energy Network: It is necessary to use a centralized network to achieve a minimum viable product

DePIN Energy Network reduces energy transmission through distributed power supply, improves energy utilization efficiency, and ultimately realizes a VPP virtual power plant. With the development of energy harvesting and energy storage technology, individuals can become energy suppliers, but transmission faces higher costs. Smart grid can guide the construction of power supply network through power consumption data collection, and the construction is relatively easy. Therefore, the fastest growing segment of DePIN Energy will be the smart grid. Similar to wireless communication networks, power generation projects need to cooperate with centralized power grids to achieve mode operation.

Our judgment on DePIN energy:

• VPP (Virtual Power Plant, VPP) virtual power plant is the end of DePIN energy: connecting the small power supply network and the demand side through the DePIN incentive model to form a virtuous cycle and ultimately realize the VPP virtual power plant.
• Currently, the DePIN energy project is gradually realizing some aspects of VPP, such as data, electricity meters or power generation.

06 DePIN + consumer products: a new revolution in marketing model

Since the DePIN track exploded in October last year, a large number of DePIN consumer products have emerged on the market, including watches. , rings, e-cigarettes, power banks, game consoles, etc., promote the sales and high-frequency use of equipment through DePIN incentives.

Features of DePIN + consumer products:

• 市场规模天花板高：消费级设备市场空间巨大，在 Web2 世界当中估计在数万亿美元至上百万亿美元之间，包括各种消费品。
• 触达 C 端用户：Web3 用户大多是交易型用户，与现实世界的联系相对较少，缺乏与用户生活的密切关联。然而，DePIN 消费品的商业模式和运营方式可以让 Web3 的应用融入到现实生活中，与用户建立联系并增加用户黏性，从而使其真正融入现实世界。
• 高回报预期促进传统品牌 Web3 转型：新型 Web3 营销模式让商品不仅有使用价值，还有盈利属性，这种模式有助于产品快速占领市场，从而显着提升盈利能力。

消费级DePIN 硬件潜在风险和不足：

受制于单一的代币激励，买硬件撸毛用户居多，而非有真实需求用户，和目前DePIN 硬件设备和软件之间存在验证问题类似，需要有更多的防作弊解决方案来攻克。

Part 05 DePIN 衍生的两大新机会

01 DePIN 供应端下半场突破口在Edge AI：手机和PC 端

手机和PC 是最普及的硬件设备，无需加密货币经验，是绝佳的破圈入口。可以通过两种方式加入 DePIN 网络：

• 运行节点程序，成为 DePIN 硬件的控制端。
• 直接提供传感器数据或者计算资源。

加密手机崛起的机会：4 大应用场景，通过潜在收益撬动市场

• 移动端加密 App。加密手机内置的加密应用市场，是 dAPP 绝佳的用户入口。手机作为人们日常使用最多的设备，给加密应用的普及提供了平台。
• 边缘计算。边缘计算是一种明确的发展趋势。数据处理和分析任务从中心化数据中心转移到更靠近数据源的地方，从而提高效率、降低成本。代币经济激励结合加密手机可以加速边缘计算发展进程。
• 代币空投。对于手机购买者而言，空投可以带来经济回报。对于项目方而言，以加密手机为对象进行空投，使得代币持有分散度高，有利于 Meme 传播或者消费级应用冷启动。
• DePIN 挖矿。对于 DePIN 项目而言，加密手机的传感器、计算模块是天然的供给端。手机作为 DePIN 设备可以参与 DePIN 经济，获得奖励。

加密手机竞争关键

• 手机硬件生产壁垒较小，手机生产供应链成熟, 生产周期短、成本可控，使得售价低，目前推出的加密手机定价100 美元到1000 美元不等。
• 手机交付的难点在于销售网络。具有互联网销售和线下地推网络的项目将更容易获取市场。
• 应用生态是加密手机形成壁垒的关键，一旦形成网络就会有机会成为 Web3 的流量入口。
• 其他考验：硬件迭代，考验项目的资金实力和运营能力。

加密手机终局：DePIN + 共享经济

Web2 时代，通过互联网，个人汽车、房屋聚集起来形成庞大的服务市场，使个人资产实现变现。

Web3 时代，通过代币经济，将闲置和分散个人硬件设备组织起来形成生产力，使个人硬件设备变现。基于Web3 手机的软件还将构建Web3 服务基础设施，革新Web2 共享经济模式，覆盖餐饮、出行、住宿等各个方面，手机端Web3 应用具有以下特点：通过加密经济进行营销创新、代币空投、高频社交和消费级产品。

02 DePIN 硬件和数据资产借助RWA 模式，实现链上金融化

DePIN 物理硬件代币化：

• 释放DePIN 硬件流动性。 DePIN 物理硬件代币化后，可以实现收益分离、抵押借贷等 RWA 衍生项目，无需采用实物交割即可对 DePIN 收益权进行交易。
• DePIN 收益为稳定币提供生息来源。
• DePIN 硬件资产区块链资产证券化，发行传统金融类似 Reits 模式的产品，例如将 GPU 打包上链，做成 GPU Index。

数据资产（NFT）代币化：

• 将数据资产标准化、代币化是促进其在市场上流动的关键。
• DePIN 数据资产赋能链上金融。在数据资产代币化基础上可以创建以数据为支持的金融产品，从而实现创新应用，譬如，DIMO 的汽车数据可以用于链上车贷。

总结与预测

区块链向现实世界拓展是一个必然趋势，DePIN 代表了一种去中心化应用的范式：节点经济，矿工模式，改造现实世界。按照 Messari 去年的预估，2028 年 DePIN 市值达到 3.5 万亿美元，按照当前 Coingecko 上 DePIN 类别 300 亿美元的规模，可以得出，潜在增长空间 20-120 倍的结论。

• Layer1/2 是生态增长最确定以及稳定的受益者，本轮周期支持 DePIN 生态的公链将获得最大红利。
• 目前中间件主要是 DePIN 专用 Layer1 的一个重要组件，尽管通用型中间件技术难度较大，我们仍然期待有所突破，这将大大促进 DePIN 应用繁荣，而中间件会是繁荣的直接受益者。
• 和游戏公会类似，DePIN 矿工服务层有望发展出无国界硬件矿工公会，当前潜在机会是全球硬件供应链和节点部署服务，DePIN 数据聚合工具层也存在空缺机会。
• 计算板块中，GPU 是发展最快、最成熟的细分领域，未来 GPU 平台将走向横向整合和垂直打通；此外基于存储叠加计算的「算存一体」将是新的叙事，传统存储如 Filecoin、Arweave 将焕发新生机。
• DePIN AI 发展现状：以 Bittensor 为首的 AI 大语言模型利用先发优势逐渐吸纳众多赛道龙头项目，同时类似 Fetch.ai 的其他大模型也在积极布局当中，竞争激烈，格局不明朗，未来会像 2000 年互联网爆发一样，迎来千模大战，各家都有机会。
• 传感器是 AI 激活的潜力板块，专有设备销售收入将给传感器项目提供更多创新空间和抗风险能力。
• 无线网络和能源网络的模式逻辑类似。无线网络终局在于绑定大型运营商，更可能从第三世界突破；能源网络终局是虚拟电厂（VPP），目前项目从 VPP 各个环节入手进行探索，赛道仍处于发展早期。
• 基于手机和 PC 的 Edge AI 是 DePIN 发展下一个趋势，通用型 Web3 终端设备也将催生新型 Web3 共享经济，更多面向 C 端的高频消费级 Web3 应用将逐步涌现。
• DePIN 是一种新的 RWA 资产发行方式，与链上 DeFi 结合将释放 DePIN 硬件和数据的流动性。

报告原文：https://docsend.com/v/x2zdt/futureofdepincn

感谢支持： DePhy、Exabits、Ora、EthStorage、Hotspotty、IoTeX、DePIN Hub 对本报告的提供的指导和建议。

Reference:

https://messari.io/report/state-of-depin-2023

https://public.bnbstatic.com/static/files/research/depin-an-emerging-narrative.pdf

https://mirror.xyz/sevenxventures.eth/Hx4AScWLZf4HrCl1IoumFTq1L20e3SzF-9XEkgWmrG4

https://www.galaxy.com/insights/research/understanding-intersection-crypto-ai/

https://gpus.llm-utils.org/nvidia-h100-gpus-supply-and-demand/

https://messari.io/report/the-depin-sector-map

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