

A detailed understanding of the liquidation algorithm of perpetual contracts: the source of the counterfeit bull market
2025年的加密牛市或许(早已)悄然降临,但其驱动力的节奏却与往昔截然不同。如果你仍把目光锁定在现货交易量上来判断市场温度,那你可能只瞥见了冰山露出水面的一角。这一轮行情真正的主角,是永续合约(Perps)——一个庞大、高杠杆、由多空双方激烈对撞构成的PVP战场。这里的流动性、叙事逻辑和财富效应,正以前所未有的方式重塑整个市场的运行规则。
为何资金会前所未有地涌向合约市场?我们将通过一个数字模型,揭示“空头爆仓”如何成为价格飙升的火箭推进剂,驱动资产价格螺旋式上升的核心引擎。
免责声明:纯属虚构,若有雷同,纯属巧合。
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杠精声明:你说我错,那你就赢了。
一、 数据透视:当“尾巴”开始摇动“狗”
事实是最好的证言。我们先用数据来验证一个令人震惊的现象:永续合约的交易规模已经全面超越现货市场。
- 交易量对比: 根据TokenInsight等机构在2025年第二季度发布的统计,主流交易所中,加密衍生品(尤其是永续合约)的交易额普遍达到现货交易额的 10至15倍。这意味着,当现货市场完成100亿美元成交时,合约市场已实现1000亿到1500亿美元的流转。
- 未平仓合约(Open Interest): 观察BTC、ETH以及热门新币种,其未平仓合约金额远超该币种在交易所内的实际现货库存。这说明大多数玩家的资金和风险敞口,早已从现货转向衍生品领域。
- 资金费率(Funding Rate): 在本轮上涨周期中,多数时间资金费率持续为正且居高不下。这吸引了一大批“资金费率套利者”进场,他们采取“做空永续合约 + 同步买入现货”的策略,稳赚每日支付的费率差。这种操作进一步抽走现货流动性,并将其冻结在对冲仓位之中。
结论: 数据清晰指向一个现实——市场的资金流向、注意力焦点和博弈重心已完成结构性迁移。永续合约不再依附于现货,反而成了主导短期价格波动的主引擎。市场逻辑已从“现货带动合约”,演变为“合约引爆,倒逼现货”。
“在这个时刻,现货竟沦为‘影子’。”
二、 核心机制揭秘:“空头爆仓火箭”是如何发射的?
市场上出现了一个“反常”现象——价格上涨并非源于现货买盘增强,而是由合约端的清算行为触发。这正是本轮“Perps牛市”的真正内核。
让我们用一个简化案例来拆解这个过程。
案例:新币 "RocketCoin" (RKT)
背景设定:
- RKT是一个新兴项目,初始流通量极小,仅有100万枚在市场上流通(总发行量为1000万枚)。
- 某交易所上线了RKT的U本位永续合约。
- 当前现货价格:$10。
- 市场存在“新币必空”的“共识”,导致合约市场聚集了大量空头仓位。假设在$11至$15区间内,有总计价值1000万美元的空单(约30万枚RKT)等待被爆仓。
发射流程:
- 初始点火: 某巨鲸或项目方在现货市场投入少量资金,例如花费20万美元购入2万枚RKT,将价格从$10拉升至$11。由于流通盘极轻,小幅资金即可撬动显著涨幅。
- 一级火箭脱落(首次清算): 当价格触及$11,部分在此价位设置止损的空头仓位被强制平仓(即爆仓),涉及金额约100万美元。
- 清算机制生效: “平空”意味着系统必须执行“买入”操作。清算引擎自动在市场上买入价值100万美元的RKT永续合约。
- 做市商同步对冲: 提供流动性的做市商在卖出合约的同时,为规避自身风险,会立即进入现货市场买入同等数量的RKT进行对冲。
- 价格反馈放大: 这笔额外的现货买单再次推高原本稀薄的市场价格,比如从$11升至$12。
- 二级火箭点燃(连锁反应): 现货价达$12,触发更多空头爆仓。同样的链条再度启动:合约清算 → 做市商买入现货对冲 → 价格继续上扬。
- 成功入轨: 如此循环形成正向反馈的“清算螺旋”。每一层空头的爆仓都成为下一轮上涨的动力源,推动RKT价格一路冲破$15。最初仅20万美元的“点火资金”,最终撬动了数百万甚至上千万美元的被动买入潮。
结论: 这就是“Perps牛市”的底层逻辑——利用极低的现货流通作为支点,借助合约市场堆积的空头仓位作为燃料,以“爆仓清算机制”为发动机,实现价格的非线性跃迁。现货的价格上涨,只是这场风暴的结果,而非起点。(当然现实中不会如此丝滑)
三、 为什么是“这个版本”?天时、地利、人和
此类现象在以往周期中并不突出,而今爆发,源于多重因素共振:
- 天时(项目方策略): 本轮项目普遍采用“低流通量 + 高完全稀释估值(FDV)”的发行模式,人为制造稀缺性,为操控现货盘口、引爆合约市场提供了理想土壤。
- 地利(基础设施成熟): 永续合约经过多年迭代,产品体验流畅、流动性深厚、API完善、做市体系健全,足以承载巨额资金和复杂策略的高频博弈。
- 人和(市场心理与叙事):
- “空新币”的集体信仰: 这种被广泛传播的“潜规则”主动创造了大量潜在爆仓目标,相当于提前铺设好了燃料带。
- 暴富传说盛行: 合约圈里动辄百倍千倍收益的故事不断发酵,吸引无数追求极限回报的投机者涌入。尤其像Hyperliquid上的巨鲸们频繁上演极限操作,为“一夜暴富(或归零)”增添了无限想象。
- 机制本身的吸引力: 资金费率套利、抢先清算、闪电下单等高级玩法层出不穷,让市场从简单的多空对抗升级为多角色参与的金融游戏,进一步锁住并激活流动性。
总结
请勿当真,所谓“Perps牛市”,不过是对当前市场结构异化的调侃之称。它虽讲述着财富膨胀的故事,但更深层的,是一场关于杠杆、流动性设计、机制漏洞与人性贪婪交织的现代金融寓言,而非传统意义上的价值发现。
在这个版本中,现货已退居幕后,成为对冲工具与价格锚定点;而永续合约,则集叙事、资本与机制于一身,真正掌握着市场的呼吸与心跳。理解并适应这套“用你的爆仓喂养他人利润”的游戏规则,才是穿越本轮周期的核心生存技能。
金融的本质,终究是博弈。PvP永远比PvE刺激。
愿我们始终敬畏市场,如临深渊,如履薄冰。
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