Table of Contents
疲弱就业数据支撑BTC
比特币 (BTC/USD) 短期与长期技术展望
Home web3.0 Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast: Analysts say Q4 cycle speculation ignores statistics

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast: Analysts say Q4 cycle speculation ignores statistics

Sep 11, 2025 pm 04:27 PM
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  • 疲软经济数据为BTC提供支撑
  • 比特币 (BTC/USD) 短期与长期技术走势分析

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast: Analysts say Q4 cycle speculation ignores statistics

周六,比特币价格跌破110,500美元关口,单日跌幅超过2%,市场对第四季度价格反弹的预期逐渐降温。这一情绪转变源于分析师PlanC的警示,他指出,依赖历史减半周期来预测本轮高点在统计学上并不可靠。

PlanC将这种预测方式类比为“抛硬币谬误”,提醒投资者不应盲目相信过去的价格模式会重复上演。他表示:“目前并无统计依据支持比特币将在第四季度见顶的说法。当前市场结构已与以往周期大不相同——比特币ETF的推出以及企业大规模持仓正深刻改变市场动态,基于旧模型的预测已不再适用。”

[ ASK A QUESTION LIVE: //m.sbmmt.com/link/fd824b809b7624dbc902a43d589c339c ]

PlanC’s analysis identifies a disconnect between bullish Q4 Bitcoin price predictions and statistical probability.

The forecast hinges on psychological factors, not fundamental metrics.

A cycle high this year lacks statistical…

— AIR3 Agent (@AIRewardrop) September 6, 2025

该观点削弱了市场的乐观预期,许多投资者开始怀疑BTC是否还能突破此前124,128美元的历史高点。一项最新调查显示,约70%的交易者认为,比特币将先回落至105,000美元水平,之后才有可能开启新一轮上涨。

  • PlanC警示:历史周期缺乏统计有效性
  • 调查结果:多数交易员预计BTC将回调至105K后再上行
  • ETF与机构入场:正在打破传统周期规律

疲弱就业数据支撑BTC

尽管市场短期情绪趋于谨慎,但宏观面正为比特币提供支撑。最新公布的美国非农就业数据低于预期,显示招聘速度放缓、失业率上升,并对前期数据进行了向下修正。

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast: Analysts say Q4 cycle speculation ignores statistics

金融市场反应明显:美国国债收益率走低,美元指数下挫0.70%,而美联储9月降息的概率迅速攀升。宽松货币政策环境通常利好比特币,因疲软美元和低融资成本有助于提升风险资产吸引力。

“一旦就业市场出现疲态,美联储就有了降息的理由。”一位策略师指出,“这种宏观背景可能有效缓解比特币的下行压力。”尽管短期内市场保持观望,但若美联储转向鸽派,或将为BTC价格提供底部支撑。

比特币 (BTC/USD) 短期与长期技术展望

当前比特币价格前景维持中性。从4小时图来看,BTC正构筑一个上升三角形形态,上方阻力位于113,400美元,而自8月下旬以来已多次形成更高的低点。

50日均线(SMA)当前位于110,021美元,为价格提供支撑;200日均线(SMA)则位于112,606美元,成为关键的多空分水岭。
RSI指标处于50中性区域,表明市场处于盘整状态,同时出现轻微的看涨背离迹象,显示动能正在逐步企稳。

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast: Analysts say Q4 cycle speculation ignores statistics

BTC/USD 日线价格图表 – 来源:TradingView

若比特币能伴随强劲成交量突破113,400美元阻力,下一目标将指向115,400美元和117,150美元。
反之,若上攻失败,价格可能回落至108,770美元附近的支撑区域寻找买盘。

Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast: Analysts say Q4 cycle speculation ignores statistics

BTC/USD周线价格图表 – 来源:TradingView

从周线级别看,比特币仍运行于一个上升通道之中。

下一个主要阻力位于134,500美元附近,而根据斐波那契扩展位测算,若上涨动能增强,潜在高点可能延伸至171,000美元,甚至触及231,000美元。下方关键支撑区域位于95,000–100,000美元区间,预计该区域将吸引大量逢低买入,从而维持整体上升趋势结构。

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