Ramalan Harga Bitcoin 2050: $52 Juta atau Sifar? Meneroka Faktor Membentuk Masa Depan BTC

As we approach the close of the first quarter of the 21st century, the world has witnessed remarkable transformations across nearly every domain.

As we approach the close of the first quarter of the 21st century, the world has witnessed remarkable transformations across nearly every domain. Among these, the emergence of cryptocurrencies – led by Bitcoin – has been nothing short of revolutionary. However, as we look forward, the future of Bitcoin remains fiercely contested. Will it continue its unprecedented ascent to become a pillar of global finance or could it fade into irrelevance?

In this article, we’ll delve into contrasting projections for Bitcoin’s value in 2050, ranging from a mind-boggling $52 million to a total collapse to zero, and explore the factors that shape these divergent forecasts.

Is Bitcoin headed for a $52 million valuation or something more modest

As the world’s first decentralized cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has shaken up the financial landscape. With its current valuation at $55,862 as of August 6, 2024, Bitcoin continues to thrive as the market increasingly embraces digital assets. This ongoing growth has led many experts to speculate about its trajectory over the next 25 years. While some envision Bitcoin reaching extraordinary heights, others foresee a drastic downfall. Let’s first examine the arguments supporting a bullish future for Bitcoin.

A comprehensive analysis by VanEck’s Digital Assets Research Team projects that Bitcoin’s value could surge to $2.9 million – in a base scenario – or even reach an astounding $52 million – in a bullish scenario – by 2050. But what’s driving these optimistic predictions?

VanEck’s research is rooted in the belief that Bitcoin will evolve into a key global reserve currency. The firm anticipates that Bitcoin could soon play a central role as an international medium of exchange, particularly with the implementation of new Bitcoin layer two solutions. They also predict that Bitcoin will facilitate 10% of global trade transactions and five percent of domestic trade by 2050. Furthermore, VanEck suggests that central banks could hold two-point-five percent of their assets in Bitcoin by then.

Here are some significant factors VanEck highlights that could contribute to Bitcoin’s value surge by 2050.

A transforming international monetary system

A major driver of Bitcoin’s potential rise is a shift in the IMS (International Monetary System). According to VanEck’s analysis, current trends indicate that economies are gradually distancing themselves from traditional currency reserves.

Today, the IMS is largely dominated by the US dollar, along with the British pound, Japanese yen and euro. A country’s currency is used in global trade based on its share of the world’s GDP (gross domestic product), which in turn strengthens the financial infrastructure built around that currency.

For decades, this system has remained stable, but cracks are beginning to show. VanEck’s research notes that the US dollar’s share in cross-border payments has hovered around 61% for the past 45 years. However, the euro and yen have seen significant declines.

The euro’s share of global payments has dropped from 22% in the mid-2000s to 14.5% by the end of 2023. Its presence in central bank reserves has also decreased from 25.3% in the late 2000s to 19.75% in 2023.

The Japanese yen has fared even worse, with its share of global payments falling from 12% in the mid-1990s to under five percent in 2023, while its central bank reserves have shrunk from six-point-two percent to just over five percent in the same period.

These shifts suggest that reliance on the ‘principle four currencies’ – the US dollar, yen, euro and pound – is waning globally. VanEck posits that this diminishing dependence opens the door for Bitcoin to fill the gap in the years ahead.

De-dollarization and the emergence of a new IMS

VanEck’s analysis also highlights a significant shift tied to de-dollarization. Although the US dollar remains a dominant global reserve currency, many nations are gradually moving away from it – a trend known as de-dollarization.

Several factors are driving this transition, including the following.

This gradual distancing from the US dollar is paving the way for a new IMS. According to VanEck’s research, the Chinese Yuan – RMB (Renminbi) – has seen its value double over the past year. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Russia are increasingly using RMB for international trade in place of the US dollar. Moreover, emerging economies are favoring local currencies over the US dollar. For instance, India is now purchasing oil using INR (Indian Rupees) and settling trade with Malaysia in INR.

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