IDC: China’s AI investment scale may reach US$26.69 billion in 2026

Recently, IDC released the 2022 V2 version of IDC's "Global Artificial Intelligence Expenditure Guide", which shows that the total global investment in artificial intelligence IT in 2021 is US$92.95 billion, and is expected to increase to US$301.43 billion in 2026, with a five-year compound growth rate. (CAGR) is approximately 26.5%. Focusing on the Chinese market, IDC predicts that China’s AI investment scale is expected to reach US$26.69 billion in 2026, accounting for approximately 8.9% of the world, ranking second among individual countries in the world.

In the next five years, the hardware market will become the largest primary submarket in China’s AI market, accounting for more than half of the total investment in AI. IDC predicts that the scale of IT investment in China's AI hardware market will exceed US$15 billion in 2026. With the gradual improvement of AI infrastructure construction, the growth rate of hardware will gradually slow down, with the five-year CAGR remaining at around 16.5%. Among them, the server market, as the main component of the hardware market, accounts for more than 80% during the five-year forecast period.

At the same time, the service market will expand the market size at a faster rate, with a five-year CAGR expected to be approximately 29.6%. The total investment scale in the service market is expected to exceed US$4 billion in 2026, nearly four times the investment scale in 2021, and the market is growing significantly. Among them, the AI ​​service market defined by IDC is mainly dominated by the IT service submarket. IDC predicts that IT services will lead the services market growth with a five-year CAGR of 31.0%.

From the perspective of AI software, driven by the gradual development of machine learning, computer vision and other technologies and the gradual diversification of China’s policy environment and customer needs, China’s AI software market share will increase year by year. In 2026, more than 25% of AI market-related IT investments will flow to software. In terms of growth rate, the AI ​​software market will become the fastest growing primary submarket during the five-year forecast period, with a five-year CAGR of approximately 30.4%. From the perspective of segmented technology markets, in the next five years, Artificial Intelligent Platforms will absorb more than 70% of software-related expenditures and become an important driving force for the growth of the software market with a five-year CAGR of 33.1%.

IDC predicts that the AI-related expenditures of users in the four major terminal industries of professional services, government, finance, and telecommunications will continue to lead during the five-year forecast period. The four together account for more than 60% of the total expenditures of China's AI market. . Specifically, local government AI spending will lead the growth of AI investment with a five-year CAGR of 24.3%, with spending expected to exceed US$2.51 billion in 2026; the central government's five-year CAGR is expected to be 19.4%, with spending expected to reach US$1.37 billion in 2026. The market size of the financial industry represented by banks will also continue to grow in the next few years, with a five-year CAGR expected to exceed 21.0%. In addition, the construction industry, discrete manufacturing and healthcare industries have also achieved high growth rates, jointly promoting the development and application of artificial intelligence in China.

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