Ming-Chi Kuo: Demand is far below expectations and Apple has cut Vision Pro headset shipments

Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman recently stated that the popularity of Apple’s Vision Pro headset has faded, and sales in some stores have dropped to a few units a week. Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also recently issued an investment briefing, believing that Apple has cut shipments of the Vision Pro headset due to a "seriously greater than expected" drop in demand.

Ming-Chi Kuo’s complete forecast is as follows:

Apple has revised down its 2024 Vision Pro shipments to 400,000-450,000 units (for comparison, the market had previously expected 700,000-800,000 units or more) ).

Apple canceled orders before launching the Vision Pro headset in non-U.S. markets, which means that demand in the U.S. market has dropped sharply and exceeded expectations, making Apple more conservative about demand in non-U.S. markets.

Apple is re-examining and adjusting its head-mounted display development blueprint, so it may not launch a successor or derivative model of the Vision Pro head-mounted display in 2025 (while it was previously expected that there will be new models in 2H25/4Q25), Apple currently It is expected that Vision Pro shipments may decline year-on-year in 2025.

Vision Pro’s order cancellation means that the development of the following new trends may be lower than market expectations

MR head display

The challenge of Vision Pro is not to sacrifice see-through In terms of user experience, it is necessary to solve the problems of lack of key applications, price and head-wearing comfort at the same time. In comparison, although VR is also a niche market, it at least has proven successful applications (games) and trend visibility that is better than MR.

Pancake

As the upgrade of optical specifications of mobile phones has slowed down for several years, investors expect Pancake, whose unit price is significantly higher than that of lenses, to become a new growth driver for the optical industry. Vision Pro's lower-than-expected shipments will mean that Pancake's future revenue contribution to the optical industry will be lower than investors expected.

Micro OLED

Vision Pro / MR headset is the most critical application of Micro OLED. If the growth trend of key applications is not as expected, the mass production of Micro OLED and its adoption by other small-sized consumer electronic devices will be delayed.

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