How to set the "life cycle" of mobile phones is a big challenge that stumps many mobile phone brands.

From the perspective of mobile phone brands, first of all, we cannot set the life cycle of mobile phones too short, otherwise users will feel that our mobile phones are not durable and turn to other brands. . But we cannot set the life cycle of mobile phones too long, otherwise our new products will not be sold, which will also affect product sales. Of course, these are all considerations from the perspective of mobile phone brands. As consumers, we naturally want our phones to be as durable as possible, so on the consumer side, a concept corresponding to the "life cycle" of mobile phones has also been born - mobile phone replacement cycle.

In 2010, the replacement cycle of mobile phone users was about 2-3 years. This was because mobile phone technology at that time was relatively stable and the launch of new mobile phones was slow. Users are more inclined to use the same phone for a longer period of time. Compared with today, the functions and performance of mobile phones at that time were relatively limited, and they were not updated and upgraded as frequently as now.

Image source: Veer

But in the era of smartphones, mobile phones The replacement cycle has been cut in half, from the original 24-36 months to 16-20 months. Of course, in addition to mobile phone brands, 4G and 5G technological innovations and operator contract machines are also behind it. However, the main reason for the shortening of the replacement cycle is the innovation of mobile phone technology and the drastic changes in usage scenarios.

However, judging from the data in recent years, the replacement cycle of mobile phones seems to have been lengthened again:

According to Counterpoint’s survey data, the overall replacement cycle of mobile phones in 2022 will be 43 months. In 2023, the replacement cycle of Chinese users will also increase from 18 months to 30 months. In the United States, where contract phones are prevalent and the replacement cycle has been maintained at 24 months for a long time, the data is also "not optimistic." According to Business Insider's third round of special annual survey data, many users in the U.S. market will continue to use older phones rather than upgrade to iPhone 15. The report also predicts that iPhone sales in the United States may stagnate next year.

A more dynamic Chinese mobile phone market

In fact, everyone knows the reason why the replacement cycle of the US market is getting longer You can guess: a closed market established by administrative means does not allow threatening outside players to enter. Once a foreign brand has the momentum to change the market structure or shows a threat, administrative means will be used to "harmless" it as soon as possible.

This special market model has caused the "US server" mobile phone market to be in competition with backward versions for a long time. Low-intensity technology iterations have also made new products more and more attractive. Low. When Apple CEO Tim Cook was asked about the lack of major upgrades to the iPhone, he even said, "I think it's great for people who want a new phone to be able to buy an iPhone every year." Cool thing." Such illogical words.

In comparison, the Chinese mobile phone market is obviously more dynamic.

According to the 2023 "Daily Economic News" and Huichen Shares' survey of respondents' willingness to change phones, the respondents' willingness to change phones is higher than the previous two surveys. A significant increase, 56.3% of respondents said they currently have plans to purchase a new mobile phone. Although this kind of survey cannot change the fact that mobile phone sales are declining, as a signal of the recovery of the mobile phone market, the increase in willingness to replace is indeed a good sign for mobile phone brands.

Photo source: Veer

Different from the United States, which has low-intensity competition Market, the competition in the domestic mobile phone market is particularly fierce. From design and hardware to functions, software and the hardware ecosystem behind it, the highly involved domestic smartphone market will never leave a chance for competitors to relax and breathe.

Take the folding screen as an example. Google only cracked the US folding screen market with Pixel Fold in 2023, and the iPhone’s folding screen business is still at the stage of netizen renderings. At the same time, Chinese brand folding screen devices have completed the three generations of "outward folding", "inward folding" and "water drop inward folding" technologies, and have begun to develop in the direction of fingerprints under the folding screen and folding screen usage scenarios.

#This iteration speed also stimulates the frequency of replacement among domestic consumers. According to IDC data, the domestic folding screen mobile phone market remains stable, with shipments reaching 1.02 million units in the first quarter of 2023, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. With the addition of more manufacturers and the release of more products, China's folding screen mobile phone market is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2023. For example, in 2023Q1, OPPO accounted for 35% of the entire folding screen market with its thin and light OPPO Find N2 and OPPO Find N2 Flip. Among them, OPPO Find N2 Flip alone accounted for nearly 22% of the market share, which is terrifying.

The slowdown in replacement frequency is an inevitable rule

Despite the active self-rescue of domestic mobile phone brands, the performance of the domestic mobile phone market has been able to survive the declining global sales environment. But it is undeniable that under the development of a mature market, before encountering the next industry explosion point, it is an inevitable market law that the replacement cycle will become longer.

First of all, with the improvement of market maturity, the mobile phone market has gradually become saturated after experiencing a period of rapid growth. Some potential users have already entered the market, and the growth of new users has slowed down. Secondly, technological maturity is another important reason for the extension of mobile phone replacement cycles. Modern smartphone technology is gradually maturing, and new generations of mobile phones often can only provide relatively small improvements in performance and functionality. The iPhone 15 series, which has been experiencing cold weather, is the best example.

Of course, after the domestic mobile phone market was saturated, domestic manufacturers are still expected to seize two important opportunities. One is overseas markets, such as India, Indonesia and other developing countries with large populations. They are still in the transition period from feature phones to smart phones. They have huge growth potential and can meet the growth needs of domestic manufacturers. The other is 5G technology. Historically, communication technology changes are closely related to the upgrading of terminal equipment. 5G can theoretically bring about a wave of machine replacement.

Photo source: Veer

However, today in 2023 It seems that these two major dividends are gradually disappearing. Domestic leading manufacturers have gone overseas one after another, and the incremental space in overseas markets has basically been explored. Domestic manufacturers have successfully captured the mid- to low-end markets in some regions, but they still encounter obstacles in the high-end market. The penetration rate of 5G mobile phones is rising rapidly, and the replacement trend is gradually receding. Moreover, 5G has failed to bring revolutionary application scenarios, and its driving force for users to switch phones has been greatly weakened.

In addition, the phenomenon of “super apps” unique to China has also separated users from the ecosystem of smartphone brands. Users no longer pay attention to what functions the mobile phone brand’s new system can provide. Instead, pay attention to what new features have been added to WeChat updates. This special user relationship also further reduces the appeal of new mobile phones to users.

But on the bright side, the continued decrease in willingness to replace phones and the increasingly longer replacement cycles will put pressure on mobile phone brands, forcing them to make Change. Although it is difficult for disruptive innovative products to emerge in this environment, as long as there are more cost-effective options on the market, this is also a good thing for consumers.

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