How many times will the Dogecoin ETF price rise?

The possible price increase of Dogecoin ETF after approval is 2 to 5 times, and the current price of $0.18 may rise to $0.6 to $1.2. 1) In the optimistic scenario, the increase can reach 3 times to 10 times, due to the bull market and the boost of Musk; 2) In the neutral scenario, the increase is 1.5 times to 3 times, due to moderate capital inflows; 3) In the pessimistic scenario, the increase is 0.5 times to 1.5 times, due to bear market and low liquidity.

Regarding the possible price increase after the approval of Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, there are currently no clear cases in the market to refer to (because no Dogecoin ETF has been approved), but we can make reasonable speculation based on the historical performance, market sentiment and Dogecoin characteristics of the Bitcoin ETF.

1. Reference for the increase of Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin spot ETF (such as $IBIT\text{、}$ Performance of IBIT, FBTC) after its approval in January 2024:

• Bitcoin Price: ETF Passes Previous $45,000\ast \ast \to \text{最高涨至}\ast \ast$ 45,000∗∗→The highest rise to ∗∗73,000 (up 62%).

• ETF capital inflows: ETFs such as BlackRock (IBIT), FBTC have accumulated net inflows of more than $15 billion, driving the market to rise.

Conclusion: The passage of Bitcoin ETFs has brought short-term gains (50%-100%), but the long-term gains still depend on the overall bull market cycle.

2. Potential increase forecast of Dogecoin ETF

If Dogecoin ETF is approved, the possible increase depends on the market environment, capital inflows and speculation. Here are speculations for different scenarios:

(1) Optimistic scenario (Musk boosted in the strong bull market)

• Increase: 3 times - 10 times (DOGE current price $0.18\to \text{可能涨至}\ast \ast$ 0.12→may rise to ∗∗0.6 - $1.2**)

• logic:

  • Meme coins are more speculative, and the approval of ETFs may trigger the influx of FOMO (miss-phobia) funds.

  • If Musk cooperates with the publicity (if it is announced that Tesla accepts DOGE payment), the increase may be even more exaggerated (similar to DOGE soaring 100 times in 2021).

  • If Bitcoin is in a bull market (such as breaking through $100,000), the DOGE ETF may attract more retail investors.

(2) Neutral scenario (moderate capital inflow)

• Increase: 1.5 times - 3 times (DOGE current price $0.12\to \text{可能涨至}\ast \ast$ 0.12→may rise to ∗∗0.18 - $0.36**)

• logic:

  • Institutional funds will not flow into DOGE on a large scale like Bitcoin ETFs (because DOGE is considered a high-risk asset).

  • After the ETF is approved, it will be speculated in the short term, but it lacks long-term holding demand, and the increase is limited.

(3) Pessimistic scenario (low liquidity in the bear market)

• Increase: 0.5 times - 1.5 times (DOGE current price $0.12\to \text{可能涨至}\ast \ast$ 0.12→may rise to ∗∗0.06 - $0.18**)

• logic:

  • If the market is in a bear market (such as Bitcoin fell below $40,000), the DOGE ETF may only rise briefly before falling back.

  • Without institutional funding support, prices may pull back quickly.

3. Key influencing factors

4. Historical analogy: DOGE's surge case

• January-May 2021 (no ETF, pure hype):

  • DOGE from $0.002\to$ 0.002→0.73 (up 36,500%).

  • Main driving factor: Musk shouts the Reddit/WallStreetBets hype.

in conclusion:

• The approval of ETFs may not be as crazy as pure market speculation (because ETFs are institutional products and have low volatility).

• But if the market sentiment is extremely fanatical, the DOGE ETF may still soar 5-10 times in the short term.

5. Investment advice

• Short-term trading: If the DOGE ETF is approved, you can consider selling at high prices within 1-3 days after the news is announced (avoiding a plunge after FOMO).

• Long-term holding: You need to observe whether funds continue to flow in, otherwise it may be just a short-term market.

• Risk control: Meme coins are extremely volatile, and it is recommended not to exceed 5% of the investment portfolio.

Final conclusion

• Most likely increase: 2 times - 5 times ( $0.12\to$ 0.12→0.24 - $0.6).

• Extreme situation: If the market is crazy, Musk will boost it, it may be 10 times ($1.2).

• Beware: After the ETF passes, it may have a "buy expectations and sell facts" market (a short-term high and plunge).

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