Review of ten years of historical data: Analyze the impact of macro factors on BTC prices during the bull market

Opening

Today we explore how key macroeconomic factors—global liquidity, interest rates, inflation, and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements—affect Bitcoin price during a bull market. We use historical data from the beginning of 2014 to the present to identify trends and correlations through statistical and econometric analysis, providing insights into how these factors influence market behavior and inform investment strategies.

Data Collection

We collect the following data from reliable sources:

• Interest Rates: U.S. Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED).
• Inflation: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
• Market Prices: Historical prices of stocks and Bitcoin obtained from financial databases.
• FOMC Announcements/News: Federal Reserve announcements and news archives and U.S. Treasury press releases.

GLOBAL MARKET LIQUIDITY

Liquidity, the availability of cash and easily tradable assets, is critical to a healthy economy. Increased liquidity drives asset prices higher as more money flows into the market, promoting fast and stable transactions. Periods of high liquidity increase trading volume and price. Understanding these trends helps investors seize market opportunities and make informed decisions to maximize returns.

Liquidity is measured through several indicators, including:

Money Market Funds: These funds are typically composed of highly liquid, short-term securities and are a good indicator of available liquidity in the financial system. They reflect an institution's ability to meet its short-term obligations.

 来源：联邦储备经济数据

Bank Reserves: Reserves held by banks at the central bank also indicate liquidity. Higher reserves mean there is more liquidity in the banking system available to support lending and investment.

来源：联邦储备经济数据

Liquidity Coverage Ratio: This regulatory standard ensures that financial institutions have sufficient high-quality liquid assets to cover their total net cash outflows within 30 days. It is an important indicator of a bank's liquidity health.

 来源：Investopedia

Turnover Ratios: The turnover rate of stocks and bonds indicates the liquidity of the market. A higher turnover rate indicates a more liquid market, where assets can be bought and sold quickly without significant price changes.

 Source: Investopedia

However, one of the main measures we use is the ‘M2’ money supply. M2 includes all the cash people have on hand and in bank accounts. It covers physical currency, checking accounts, savings accounts, and other near-monetary assets. Tracking M2 helps us understand overall liquidity in the economy and understand the amount of money available for spending and investment.

Historically, peaks in global M2 growth coincide with Bitcoin bull markets. What matters is not just the amount of money in circulation, but also the rate of change in the money supply. Bitcoin’s volatility tends to coincide with changes in M2 momentum. During bull markets, monitoring M2 becomes even more important, as increased liquidity typically drives markets higher, making more money available for investment, thus pushing asset prices higher.

 来源：MacroMicro

The bull run in the cryptocurrency space provides investors with significant opportunities. Here are some notable bull runs in crypto history:

来源：Greythorn

As shown in the figure, global liquidity cycles show clear cyclicality.

 来源：Global Macro Investor

Historically, as mentioned previously, there has been a significant correlation between global M2 money supply growth and the Bitcoin bull run.

 来源：MacroMicro

First Bull Market (2011-2013)

• M2 Growth: During the European financial crisis and the Bank of Cyprus crisis, central banks increased liquidity to stabilize the economy.
• Bitcoin Reaction: Bitcoin price surged from $2.93 to $329 as liquidity surged, reflecting increased demand for non-traditional financial assets. However, this increase has been primarily driven by Bitcoin’s novelty and small market capitalization, making it more prone to significant price swings.

Mainstream Popularity Bull Market (2015-2017)

• M2增长：金融动荡之后，低利率和增加的货币供应持续。
• 比特币反应：比特币从200美元上涨到19,000美元，主流媒体和机构兴趣进一步推动了其需求在不断增长的流动性中。

新数字时代牛市（2020-2021）

• M2增长：COVID-19大流行引发了前所未有的货币宽松和刺激措施，显著增加了M2货币供应量。
• 比特币反应：比特币价格从10,000美元飙升至64,000美元，投资者寻求法定货币的替代品，受通货膨胀和传统货币贬值的担忧驱动。

复苏与创新（2024）

• M2增长：由于COVID后抑制通胀的努力，提高利率，整体流动性呈下降趋势。自2023年初以来流动性略有上升，但与前几个周期相比仍然适中。
• 比特币反应：2024年，比特币创下历史新高，从25,000美元上涨到85,000美元。这一激增发生在下一次减半事件之前，尽管利率很高。这一周期独特之处在于，这是比特币首次在没有显著流动性激增的情况下达到新高，表明比特币市场的前所未有的成熟度。

然而，山寨币的情况有所不同。正如交易员Benjamin Cowen所指出的，Alts/BTC对已经在跟踪全球净流动性估计。我们可能需要看到整体流动性增加，山寨币才会进入增长阶段。

 Source: TradingView

进一步分析，交易员Nik显示BTC、USDT和USDC的主导地位与全球货币流速成反比。这意味着当货币供应量增长快于GDP时，金融化增加，导致资产泡沫和较低的比特币主导地位。相反，如果GDP增长快于货币供应量，金融化减少，导致更高的稳定币和比特币主导地位。

 Source: TradingView

我们建议分析宏观经济政策以获取未来流动性趋势的洞见。监控全球M2货币供应量，了解流动性变化及其对资产价格的影响。此外，研究市场情绪和注意力流动，提前预测和定位市场变化。

利率和通货膨胀：来自FRED数据和FOMC公告的洞见

尽管比特币是去中心化的，但在货币政策事件周围显示出显著的波动性，对利率变化和经济前景做出反应。让我们看看随着比特币的普及和融入金融系统，比特币对央行决策的敏感性是否有所变化。

一项有趣的研究显示，比特币设计为独立于货币政策，但实际上对美联储和欧洲中央银行（ECB）的决策做出反应，效果随时间变化。

2013年之前，美联储的货币冲击显著降低了比特币价格。然而，2013年之后，这些冲击开始推动比特币价格上涨，表明市场对比特币的看法发生了变化。同时，ECB的去通胀冲击始终降低比特币价格，表明比特币在ECB决策面前表现为数字黄金。

 来源：Springer

央行信息冲击对比特币在美国和欧盟的影响不同。美联储的正面冲击降低比特币价格，而ECB的正面冲击通常增加比特币价格，2018年初达到峰值。最初，比特币不受这些经济前景的影响。

下图显示，比特币价格通常在冲击后的最初几个月内调整，6个月和18个月后的效果类似。自2016年以来，ECB冲击的效果更持久，18个月后的反应比最初6个月更强。

本研究仅包括到2019年的数据。然而，从2020年开始，比特币在FOMC公告周围的实际波动性开始上升，特别是在2020年底COVID-19大流行爆发后。比特币价格几乎立即对美联储紧缩做出反应，表明与货币政策决策有更紧密和更直接的相关性，比特币的估值反应与其他风险资产（如股票、外汇和黄金）定性相似，但定量更强。

即使在最新的CPI发布中，我们也观察到比特币估值对通胀新闻在2020年后的高通胀环境中的敏感性增加。

事实上，在最近一次CPI公告中，比特币显示出即时反应。当5月份美国通胀率为0.0%（环比），这一意外结果公布时，比特币价格与大多数其他资产一起上涨。然而，当FOMC试图抑制流动性预期时，这种最初的庆祝随即被纠正。

 Source: TradingView

结论

比特币作为对抗通胀的潜在对冲引起了投资者和学者的极大兴趣。比特币最初因其稀缺性和去中心化性质而受到重视，被一些人视为对抗通胀的保障。然而，实证研究对其在这一角色中的有效性结果不一。

最初，比特币价格对货币政策公告没有显著反应。直到2019年，任何反应通常需要几个月才显现。然而，自2020年以来，比特币价格在美联储紧缩后立即开始下跌，表明与货币政策决策有更紧密和更直接的相关性。这一转变突显了比特币对央行行动的敏感性增加。

证据表明比特币与通胀之间的关系复杂且不断演变，受市场成熟度和更广泛经济条件的影响。然而，比特币的价格动态紧密联系着全球流动性状况，由央行政策、投资者行为和机构投资趋势驱动。

这些发现表明，比特币的初始需求更多是由于其作为无国界、去中心化的数字现金的使用，而不是作为通胀对冲。然而，2020年后，美联储紧缩后比特币价格大幅下跌，突显了投机动机以及更广泛的投资者基础和普遍接受。

对于即将到来的CPI发布（2024年7月11日星期四），市场预测无显著变化，预期如下。

请注意，上面显示的Truflation比率提供了额外的见解，如果实际结果再次低于预期，可能相关。

来源：Truflation.com

The above is the detailed content of Review of ten years of historical data: Analyze the impact of macro factors on BTC prices during the bull market. For more information, please follow other related articles on the PHP Chinese website!