The leader of the free world Joe Biden or a head of lettuce, which will last longer? Place your bets.

A bet worth over $100,000 on crypto prediction market Polymarket was settled yesterday as Joe Biden announced his decision not to seek re-election

A bet worth over $100,000 on crypto prediction market Polymarket was settled yesterday as Joe Biden announced his decision not to seek re-election in the coming presidential race.

The market in question asked users to predict whether Biden would remain in the race until July 28, 2024. Those betting on a ‘Yes’ outcome stood to gain $0.91 for every $1 wagered, while those betting on a ‘No’ outcome stood to gain $0.09.

At the time of writing, a total of $391,430 had been wagered on the ‘Yes’ outcome and $102,830 had been wagered on the ‘No’ outcome, with the market leaning heavily towards Biden dropping out of the race.

The market began trending towards a ‘No’ outcome on February 24, following Biden’s announcement that he planned to run for a second term in office. However, the market shifted dramatically on March 12 after a post on Biden’s X (formerly Twitter) account stated that “It’s the most important election of our lifetimes. And I will win it.”

Those betting on a ‘No’ outcome now stood to gain $0.03 for every $1 wagered, while those betting on a ‘Yes’ outcome stood to gain $0.97.

Biden’s announcement came less than 24 hours after the above post, and announced that he would not, in fact, be seeking re-election.

‘Unbiased forecasts’ or another crypto casino?

Prediction markets such as Polymarket allow users to bet on the outcome of certain events in categories such as politics, crypto, pop culture, sports, business, and science.

The fact that users have skin in the game has led some to believe that prediction markets could be more useful than traditional opinion polls. Indeed, Polymarket even boasts that its markets act as “live, unbiased 2024 election forecasts.”

However, others are skeptical, referring to markets at their current scale as “a few dozen pro forecasters, a few market makers, and a few hundred degenerate gamblers.”

Another X user, in a reply, points out that markets are often only a reliable indicator when the settlement deadline is imminent and, beforehand, are much more akin to trading overall sentiment.

When extended beyond the realms of ‘real world’ events like politics, prediction markets are, like all things crypto, prime targets for manipulation.

Drama in the predication market world.With $3.9M in total bets on the line, someone market bought $POPCAT with $300k to push it above 1Bn FDV to settle the market of "First cat to $1b?"Both Yes and No owners are currently fighting the resolution in the comments. pic.twitter.com/muGK6TeUr4

A recent $4 million market on which cat-themed meme coin would be first to reach a fully diluted value (FDV) of $1 billion resolved to ‘Yes’ for POPCAT after a single $300k buy order on Raydium, the Solana-based exchange, briefly pushed the token over the line.

Accurate or not, nobody can deny Polymarket’s popularity, especially as the drama of US politics plays out in real-time on-chain. CoinDesk tallied almost $80 million to have been bet across a variety of questions over Biden’s prospects.

On one Polymarket wager concerning who would win the Democratic nomination, a user with the handle ‘AnonBidenBull’ lost $1.85 million, as spotted by X account Degen News. The account lost a total of $2 million across three similar bets.

NEW: ANON CALLED "ANONBIDENBULL" LOST OVER $1.8M ON @Polymarket BETTING THAT @JoeBiden WOULD WIN THE 2024 DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION pic.twitter.com/hl0B2e1HoP

It’s not just Polymarket where users have lost money on backing the wrong electoral horse.

One unlucky trader bought a total of $8 million worth of Solana-based meme coin BODEN in mid-April, the price of which has since collapsed dramatically as Biden’s election prospects have worsened. X user ‘clippedtoby’ notes the trader is now down 98%.

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