Compiled by: Deep Trend TechFlow
The bull market is coming! The season of unilateral gains is not far away
We are about to enter the second phase of this bull market (the parabolic phase), which will push our altcoins to new heights!
Let me take you through the latest developments.
If this is your first market cycle, you may have been exhausted by the dramatic market corrections of the past three months.
Looking back at my first cycle, after seeing my altcoins drop over 50% after the Bitcoin halving, I thought it was all over.
I was totally wrong.
Contained in this post:
Let’s take it step by step.
No asset can continue to rise without a correction. Corrections are healthy and set the stage for building a strong bull market.
Every cycle, $BTC gets rejected at its previous all-time high multiple times before making a strong breakout.
But why is this?
Traditional investors sell and new investors buy.
In this process, $BTC moves from the weak hand to the strong hand. This is a very bullish sign!
Investors who bought Bitcoin in the $50k and $60k range will not sell at $73k. They will hold their BTC longer with the goal of making huge profits.
Recently, whales have been buying heavily!
In July, whales purchased $4,000,000,000 of BTC at the fastest pace since April 2023.
And it’s the middle of the month!
As a result, the supply of $BTC on exchanges continues to decrease.
Sooner or later, once buying pressure returns to the market, this will cause a supply shock that most people severely underestimate (more on this later).
First let’s add more bullish news!
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it rhymes!
Historically, Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have always faced significant corrections before and after the Bitcoin halving event.
This period is also known as the re-accumulation phase, during which BTC changes hands (as mentioned above, traditional investors sell and new investors buy).
On average, the “dead zone” after the halving lasts about 90 days. And we are already past 85 days
But things will get better...
The market operation is very simple. The price of an asset is determined by supply and demand.
There are more people buying than selling? -> Price increases.
There are more people selling than buying? -> Price falls.
In the second quarter, BTC faced huge selling pressure.
Who sold BTC in Q2, causing my position to drop?
These events combined to cause significant selling pressure on BTC. And altcoins always follow Bitcoin’s movements.
The good news is that the selling pressure is easing.
In the third quarter, there will still be some selling pressure
but not as much as in the second quarter. Once the market absorbs these BTC and sellers run out, the price will stabilize.
But simply easing the selling pressure is not enough to push our position higher. We also need buying pressure. And we will get it in Q4
Who will push our positions higher?
This is very important, so let’s take it step by step. The US market is a major player in the crypto industry.
Therefore, the dynamics of the US market and changes in crypto policies will have a significant impact on the entire industry.
In 2024, we are witnessing some crazy changes that even cryptocurrency industry veterans did not expect.
Cryptocurrency has become a key issue in the US election.
Trump calls himself the “crypto president,” and the Biden administration quickly adjusted its anti-crypto stance after seeing the success of Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
Both parties are vying for the support of crypto voters. The future is promising!
The US election will be held in November 2024.
As Election Day approaches, the situation will become more intense as the two parties strive to win the support of crypto voters.
This will increase awareness of cryptocurrencies among all US citizens as well as those around the world who are watching the election.
They will attract more ordinary investors to enter.
Let’s see the benefits!
With U.S. inflation cooling, an interest rate cut is increasingly likely. The probability that the Fed will announce an interest rate cut in September is 94.4%.
Interest rate cuts = rising prices of risky assets
After every interest rate cut, holding cash in a bank account becomes less attractive because the bank’s annual interest will be reduced.
The wealthy will rebalance their portfolios and increase investments in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
This will increase liquidity in risky markets such as cryptocurrencies.
Things are going well so far. But things will get better.
One particular factor will significantly increase buying pressure in the fourth quarter.
That is, FTX will start refunding customers in the fourth quarter!
A quick recap of what happened:
FTX was one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges in the United States during the 2021 bull run. However, the exchange engaged in fraudulent practices that resulted in the loss of billions of dollars in customer funds in 2022.
In the fourth quarter, FTX will distribute $16 billion in cash to its clients.
Why is this good news?
Because most FTX users are big fans of cryptocurrencies. It is likely that most of the money will flow back into the crypto industry.
This can lead to huge buying pressure.
Let’s look at this chart again. What do you see? Can you spot any patterns?
That’s right!
We are getting closer and closer to the second phase of this bull market, the phase of exponential growth.
Once Bitcoin breaks out and hits new highs, it will bring our altcoins with it!
It’s just a matter of simple market dynamics.
Buying pressure is greater than selling pressure = price goes up
To summarize, selling pressure eased in Q3 and buying pressure increased in Q4, so...
Just a little more patience, our altcoins Prices will skyrocket.
The only question you need to ask is,
Are you ready?
The above is the detailed content of BTC has once again reached the 'bull-bear dividing line', is a new round of rising prices coming?. For more information, please follow other related articles on the PHP Chinese website!
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