Delphi CEO: High FDV coins are not Meme, and large-amount unlocking does not mean the project is reset to zero

Compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlowFDV is indeed not a meme, and since this article was published I have been talking to OTC brokers trying to understand the secondary market structure of the assets I am shorting. The findings are revealing, so I wanted to share them with you. All in all, I don't think these are bullish unlocks.

1. Many SAFT assets have active sellers, but it is rare for bids to be 70% below the market price.

SAFT Trading Volume

2. After speaking with different brokers, a rough estimate of the total SAFT trading volume is around $100 million.

Call Unlock

3. "Call Unlock" wants to see the lowest unrealized gains to market cap ratio possible.

Unrealized Gains to Market Cap Ratio

4. Since the team and early investors hold a lot of unrealized gains, most tokens trade at 4-8 times the unrealized gains market cap.

Unlocking Assets

5. Assuming that within 2 years from the cliff date, assets worth the entire market value will be unlocked every 3-6 months. This may deter buyers.

High pre-Issuance secondary trading volume

6. One way to reduce unrealized gains to market cap ratio is to increase high pre-Issuance secondary trading volume.

OTC Market

7. The OTC Market is not seeing high pre-issuance secondary trading volumes.

Market Structural Characteristics

8. Some assets have the following characteristics:

   • Extremely high unrealized return to market value ratio
   • No secondary demand even if it is ~70% lower than the market price
   • Funds on Binance Rates continue to be positive, and open interest reaches 8 digits

Friction between trading parties

9. There is special friction between buyers and sellers that hinders transactions.

Possible identities of sellers

10. Sellers may include:

    • Founders/Teams
    • Investors in venture capital funds

Short selling opportunities

11. Due to market structure, still exist The opportunity to profit by shorting these assets.

The Long Tail Failure of Cryptocurrency

12. Some crypto venture capital projects may experience a "return to zero" situation. This is a natural phenomenon in venture capital.

Unique Features of Crypto Venture Capital

13. Compared to traditional venture capital, the failure of crypto venture capital projects will be public and painful.

Structural Shorting Opportunities

14. Cryptocurrencies have more structural shorting opportunities than any other asset class.

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