How is this bull market different from previous bull markets?

If you believe in huge fractal potential energy, then it will completely determine the price of Bitcoin in the coming months. As far as we know, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of nearly $73,740 in March, which is the peak of the current cycle. This would mean the bull market is over. Bitcoin and Ethereum are trading down 5% today - leading to losses for almost all but stablecoins - which certainly doesn't help market sentiment. But the thing about markets is that you never know when they will hit the top. Looking back, the all-time high reached by Bitcoin in December 2017 is clearly the high for the next three years, even if altcoins will continue to rise for a few more weeks. In March 2021, when Bitcoin first broke above $61,000, it was not certain that Bitcoin would plummet another 13% by November (just eight months later) after retracing nearly half. At some point, it becomes apparent that the bull market has run its course. The bears may have brought this up earlier than the bulls, but regardless, the subsequent May's Terra implosion and subsequent cascading liquidations and bankruptcies were the real nail in the coffin. When it comes to price, all we can really do is look backwards. It has been 585 days (approximately 20 months) since Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022, which for convenience we will refer to as the beginning of the current bull market. Fenye uses this extremelybasic definition, the first two bull markets peaked around 850 and 1,100 days later. So if we are destined to repeat these periods - a extremely hypothesis - then we are definitely in the second half of the cycle. In the past two quarters, the price of Bitcoin has increased 7 times and 4 times respectively. Even after its recent decline, Bitcoin has returned 5times so far since bottom, putting it in the midst of current bull market. If Bitcoin does peak in March, it will be the shortest bull cycle on record, not including its initialyears of price discovery. In the past two bull markets, most of Bitcoin’s gains occurred within the next 250 days, with gains of 25x and 120x respectively from the bottom. We know that there are diminishing returns every cycle - so whatever happens to Bitcoin, it's probably not going to be that revolutionary. This could leave crypto investors eager to make hugeprofits elsewhere. Historically, altcoin seasons help close the gap. But as is now well documented, there has been no altcoin season so far this cycle, at least in a much different sense than in previous periods. According to the definition outlined in a previous edition of the Empire Newsletter, there have been fourdifferent altcoin seasons in the past seven years. Two of them coincided with the Bitcoin halving, each running for approximately two years and ending when Bitcoin peaked. From the end of 2018 to the middle of the following year, a relatively short altcoin season lasted for nearly seven months. This time around, neither ETH nor TradingView’s OTHERS index (which tracks the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies outside the top 10) has returned to its all-time peak from 2021. Altcoin season will either be delayed or not arrive at all, depending on how bullish or bearish you are. Regardless, the outcome of this bull market is very different from other bull markets to date.

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